For Rays, It's Getting Late Early in '09
It's prefer curious to mention that 9-14 is a disappointing begin for the Tampa Bay Rays, but they've put us in that situation afterward their amazing emergence in 2008. Predicted by most to contend for another AL East heading behind last year's 97-won schedule, Tampa Bay dissatisfied in April, which has human marveling whether the Rays are for real, or if last year was just a fluke.
First off, there are a couple external factors that have negatively affected Tampa Bay in the early going. Residing in the AL East, it has to handle with a complicated schedule entire the course through, but the first month was especially tough. According to the progressive projection systems (PECOTA and CHONE), the mean winning percentage of their competitors in the season's first month was .524. Over their ultimate 139 games that SOS will drop slightly, down to .514.
That's no actually a mammoth inconsistency; the important publish with the Rays' early schedule has been where they've played the games. Just 8 of Tampa Bay's 1st 23 games were played by Tropicana Field. Home-field vantage may not be as momentous in baseball as in some additional amusements, but it's still a opener element, with the host winning almost 54 percentage of the period. Because of these two issues, even now they played up to their potential, the Rays were only expected to obtain 12 or 13 of their premier 23, which is well off their expected 92-win pace.
That is enough pretexts though; at last, they didn't even reach those more realistic April expectations, achieving the first month with nine wins. Two of the Rays' most gifted young actors, Scott Kazmir and B.J. Upton, have gotten off to surprisingly slow starts.
Tampa Bay namely actually 3-2 in Kazmir's 5 starts, merely they surely expect better than a 5.40 ERA from the juvenile lefty. Kazmir has skirmished with control, which namely nought current. But it's been even worse this year than in the elapse; a 5.4 BB/9 rate over a full season would be his maximum since 2004. Also of care namely a noticeable dip in speed, as the lefty has lost almost two mph off both his fastball and slider. That partially explains the submerge in strikeout rate, to 7.1 K/9 from his profession brand of 9.7.
Not all of the early returns from Kazmir's starts have been negative though,
ecco golf shoes, as two concerning trends from '08 have reversed their path. In his first three full years in the huge leagues, Kazmir had a quite natural groundball rate, around 42 or 43 percent. Last year, though, he saw a huge dip, all the way down to 31 percent. It doesn't stuff how good your matter is; if hitters are accessible elevating the ball against you, you're going to give up a good deal of homers. And that's accurate what happened, as Kazmir allowed 23 homers in 152 1/3 innings.
Fortunately, whereas, he's returned to his career groundball rate this year. This evolution may partially be property to the return of his slider, which almost disappeared last year. (He threw it fewer than 10 percent of the time.) This year, like with his groundball rate, he's behind up to his career regulation of approximately 20 percent sliders. So if he tin equitable put it all together, combining a agreeable merge of pitches with the velocity and control he displayed in '08, he should be behind to the class that everyone's expected from Kazmir since he came over from the Mets in the infamous Victor Zambrano trade.
B.J. Upton made a name for himself last October, hitting seven homers in just 11 games against the White Sox and Red Sox as the Rays advanced to the World Series. It's cozy to forget, then, that Upton had very tiny power during the regular season,
cheap tory burch shoes, slugging just nine homers in 640 plate appearances. That was reprehended on a shoulder injury, and after seeing what he did in the playoffs, everyone just kind of figured his power issues were behind him, and he'd finally reach his lofty ceiling in '09.
After having surgery on that elbow in the offseason, Upton missed the first 6 games of 2009. Since his return, though, his power has gone right back to April-September '08 levels. In his first 75 panel arrival he hasn't kick a single homer, and has doubled just three times. Combine that was a poor .177 batting average, and Upton's slugging percentage is a miniscule .226.
One positive has been Upton's persisted excellent plate discipline, drawing one impressive 13 walks in 16 games to reserve his OBP at least respectable at .320. A good eye was also his saving elegance last year, as he drew 97 walks on the way to posting a .383 OBP,
audio technica, excellent for a 23-year-old centerfielder. But if the power doesn't come, it's looking like last year's line -- .273/.383/.401 -- is his perfect dome, which would be a displeasure after last October's heroics.
Those two returning to fashion would help,
timberland uk ltd, but either way the Rays should be OK in the long flee. They have a lusty circulation even if Kazmir is average, primarily while Upton's guy October phenom, David Price, receives his unavoidable callup.
Building above final year, their defense has once again been excellent, guiding the alliance in ultimate district rating. The problem is namely the Rays have already dug themselves a chasm,
nba magic jersey, and in the AL East, they really didn't have many margin as error. Tampa Bay is already 5 1/2 games behind a Red Sox group which saw better than them to begin with. There's also the brutal card, but it looks favor two extra East teams, New York and (perhaps) Toronto,
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The Rays still have a strong club, and they're along not method out of it, but they're going to have to get entities going at once and probably experience some good luck over the season's final five months to return to the playoffs.
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