Bubble Dream

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aptitude to reverse the Government has not the market trend. However, the
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renewed China's stock market and real estate market bubble, which is deserving to massive bank loans to stimulate, attach with the common terror of inflation caused. I think the Chinese stock market and real estate market is overvalued by 50% or even 100%. These two markets are probable to accommodate in the fourth 15 min. -
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However, some period next year, the two market bubble may break out again. U.S. dollar strengthened anew the day is smart when the bubble explosion. Serious inflation will force the Fed to heave amuse rates, the bubble may be crushed catalyst. -
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China's asset markets has convert a monster As more and more sucked into the market and liquidity, are further driving up amounts, human persist apt validate the bullish expectations. Thus, there are extra people to enjoy this. However, there namely insufficient liquidity to fared it the first Now, do not constitute a liquidity thraldom. Although the first half of the fashionable loans approached 7.4 trillion yuan, but in June was only 66.6% loan-deposit ratio (compared to December last annual, 65%), one boost mini. This method namely numerous loans did not enter the real economic, merely became a leveraged funds market transactions. Chinese real estate market location in Hong Kong in 1997 are quite alike. -
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bubble with the U.S. and downs -
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China
excess liquidity from the asset bubble, showing a high level of foreign reserves and low loan-deposit ratio. The weak dollar and strong exports, resulting in the situation of excess liquidity in China. -
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Although China is experiencing weak exports of torment, but the weak dollar to China to vigorously unlock its collection in the past 5 years, liquidity, and not anxiety about the hazard of currency devaluation. -
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truth,Lacoste Swerve Trainers, predict when the bubble burst is not difficult. When the dollar became lusty again,Lacoste Tennis Trainers, the liquidity bubble will wreck heavily. -
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, whatever, is difficult to say when it will be a stronger U.S. dollar. 1985 Then, 7 years is bull. The current dollar bear market began in 2002, and since then, the dollar index (DXY) has reduced the value of about 35%. If the last circular of a bear market as a benchmark, the current bear market could last until 2012. IT revolution, on the one U.S. dollar bull market turned, you not know will not have another technological revolution, to lead the U.S. into a sustainable bull market. -
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, of way, financial policy tin endow to a short but peppery dollar bull market. The early 80s of last centenary,Lacoste Trainers, while the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, with double-digit rate walk to control inflation. Since then, the USD is very tough process. The new situation is similar. Basis of this evolution, almost surely, the Chinese chief market and economy would be -
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foam to retain long, relying ashore the liquidity of government policy. The current bubble, driven largely by the Government to encourage banks to inter-bank loans and absent fromterest rates caused. Zero interest rate policy by the Fed, paired with the weak dollar, high levels of China's alien interchange keeps, low loan-deposit ratio and, accordingly, resulting in additional liquidity, will further inflate the bubble. However, catching into list other factors, could hint the government to cool the overheated emotions. -
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build liquidity if the government do its extreme,Womens Lacoste Observe Trainers, then, when the bubble burst, even to save the If then the global economy has retrieved, the Chinese economy with strong exports may be a Conversely, if the global economy was still weak, according to my private point of view, the stock market, real estate market and the economy will appear -
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false
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The administration first set off a liquidity When the fluid is completely absorbed, the market will lose impetus. Once the market fell to a definite extent, the Government could lead to another wag of This reach can not only save the I think the Government might use this strategy. If within the next few years will continue to ebb in the universal economy, perhaps we can see that China's stock and real estate market to such a colossal anniversary fluctuations. Front, which shares the fluctuation may happen down in the -
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Many people consider that China does not bubble. High asset prices simply reflect the potential as high growth in China. No an can mention for sure that this is a real asset in the end the prosperity, alternatively just foam. -
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I view the status of China's capital market is very clear: there is a lot of bubbles. The bubble will burst very bad throughout the country the consequences. However, many people are enjoying them, the Government will not pre-emptive buffet to exclude bubbles. In fact, the policy decision-making, many people believe that the bubble is conducive to economic recovery. When the weak U.S. dollar, this argument sounds rational, because when the bubble can cool the economy and bring more liquidity. When the dollar recovery, China's capital market, perhaps the entire economy will be a I wish that those who strongly advocated the bubble, could bring an end to ..., take duty for the losses. -
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of the most basic usage is to look at the bubble valuation. Assessment rates, the most major is to measure the price proceeds ratio and rental income. Currently, nationwide, house prices per square measure is yet quite close to the U.S. average. The U.S. per capita income is 7 times the per capita income of the city. China's housing price per square measure, the equivalent of wage income is generally three months, this level is perhaps the highest in the world. -
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far as I understand, now, not many houses are rented out. Average rental income, if you count those who do not rent out the house, then truly cheap and wretched. In terms of purchasing power of the people, or the anticipated rental income,Lacoste, China's housing prices are abnormally high. Some people believe that China's real estate has forever been true: housing prices higher and higher. This is not right. -
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Chinese real estate market bubble
there is another side, that is, regional government finance in its character. Land bargains revenue and property sales revenue is generated, accounting for a large piece of regional government revenue, so they have a strong incentive to stimulate the real estate market. Land sales are often charted to rekindle the prices expected. For example, those who command high prices of land, will be shrieked Recently, the When the state-owned undertakings to borrow money to state-owned banks, and through the land auction to return the money the local government, prices have meaning? Only funds in the government's If private developers trying to pursue the land market to emulate the state-owned enterprises, is tantamount to suicide. -
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the stock market never
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stock market is in the ultimate madness. Ignorant retail investors are preoccupied by the rising trend. They dream again rich overnight. As in the past, retail investors often lose money, particularly now thatthose who have just jumped into the stock market. Finally, the mania constantly do not last long. In China, the stock market cornering points are constantly related with the political calendar. Retail investors generally trust that the government will not let the stock market in the Republic ahead the 60th annual of the fall. The short term, this faith will be self-fulfilling. From historical experience, this wave of increase in the -
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In the Greenspan era, the financial markets believe that he always shot in times of crisis But in real life, a reversal in the trend, the Government has no ability to reverse the market trend. In the past, China's stock market volatility, recommending that the government powerless to stop the market decline. However, this fiction is still profoundly rooted in the belief that investors in mind. -
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some government think tank, believes that the harmful effects of the bubble may not be so excellent. A renowned methodology is that the bubble up, the money from one pocket into another pocket, by the time paying the money streams in China, it will not produce any long-term injure. So people ought look at Japan and Hong Kong to see how the bubble does not exit occasioned colossal harm. -
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the foam beneath the resource is secondhand to produce more foam. These resources will be permanently consumed. For sample, the jobber no longer compliant to converge on the real economy, instead provide time and stamina to engage in market speculation. This means that the hereafter of China, will not have a globally competitive enterprise. Although China has experienced 30 years of high growth, but few companies with global competitiveness. A sequence of bubbles may be the main cause of this situation. -
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the younger generations, little taste of real go, instead indulging in stock market speculation. Relative to every month at a fixed salary, they are more willing to look their stock prices held within a daytime come and work, and then began to hallucinate that they can acquire big money in the stock market there. Of course, most of them may have nought to lose, then, might make some radical shakes. So the social consequences could be very serious. -
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housing mirage -
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real estate bubble often lead to economic overheating. Building blank, representing a lasting loss. In China, most people may laugh at this possibility. After all, the housing needs of 1.3 billion people is almost unlimited. However, the reality is not like that. China's urban dwellers per capita housing space is 28 square meters, according to international criteria, then this class is quite high. China's urbanization rate is about 50%, it can be up to 70% -75%. , Because of the reasons for the aging population, the rustic population will be reduced. Therefore, China's urban population will also increase by 3 million people. -
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If we imagine that these people are able to furnish a house (in today's price of view, this argument is absurd),Lacoste Shua Lace Trainers, the metropolis may necessitate increased 8.4 billion square meters of housing. China is now the work has been completed more than 20 million square meters of construction, there is still ample land to adjust variant 20 million square meters. Annual creation capacity of the construction manufacture about 15 million square meters. Absolute excess capacity, that not enough people to have lived in all the houses, the situation may presently appear. When this occurs, the consequences are very serious. Real estate prices may fall sharply, for the Japanese in the elapse 20 years, seasoned the same, it will break the whole banking system. -
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real estate bubble of the most serious damage is the population change. High prices will reduce the birth rate. When the bubble burst, real estate prices, low fertility level of cultural values ​​can not be changed. Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, in its development process have gone through the real estate bubble. Rampant during the bubble, and their declining birth rate, then, despite government stimuli, the situation has not changed. One is China's kin arranging policy in itself to lead to catastrophic population of the next 20 years. Real estate bubble to become more irreversible trend: Even if the Government relinquished the family intending policy, there will be no meaningful efficacy on fertility. The next 20 years, China will face an aging population and the population decline. Of course, the real estate prices will be very low, and a lower low again. -
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In adding to causing redistribution
bubble net detriment, but too bring a very serious social consequences. In the stock market spume, a crowd of families will lose, but very few people earn pours. China's asset gap has been a very serious phenomenon of the bubble to make the situation worse. Even until the achievement of China's urbanization, a considerable part of the people, even most people, may not have anyone money. This will guide to social instability. When most people have asset and a location in society and the market economy is settled and efficient. -
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short, the current market madness will not last long. Next year, because China is still experienced of releasing more liquidity, another wave of fever may occur. Strong when the dollar revitalization, you may in 2012, China's stock and real estate market may be favor during the eastern financial crisis, like an avalanche. -
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