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First Sergeant
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 171
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115085679 2008 年 10 月 31 日 00:43 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (1) Category: Focus
The United States is such a country, its financial strength far exceeds its capacity, its share in global GDP and 35%, while the U.S. capital market capitalization accounted for 54% of the global capital markets. U.S. dollars accounted for 72% of global foreign exchange reserves, accounting for 58% of global trade settlement. Obviously today's world, there is no one country can shake its dominance.
present, the United States is the financial crisis broke out, and the collapse of 1929 is no different in essence, is that credit is uncontrolled can even be said to be malicious to enlarge, credit crisis lead to a financial crisis, the collapse of confidence further, the market will come to a very reasonable level. It must be noted, in the 21st century world and the past and is hard to avoid the military, science and technology for economic reasons only directly contributed to the rapid collapse of an empire.
believed that the U.S. will still be out of the crisis, because this is a particularly good fortune in the crisis countries, as the outbreak of World War I and World War II quickly led to a strong U.S.. One of them is the secret of wealth: the Wall Street bubble burst in the virtual capital, physical assets in the United States. This, too, the United States will be the last winner. To know the fundamental properties of capital is profit-driven, which is considering other countries in response to this crisis, we can not forget a fundamental starting point.
crisis today, there are two details should arouse our attention: First, Congress passed the U.S. government bailout plan, the delay is not practical and quick use of rescue package approved the national debt limit, but leaves it to the stock, futures price volatility and decline. From urged Congress to pass rescue package urgency and rescue program passed action flaccid between a time lag, the time difference that the effective drive of the global capital and commodity markets centuries turbulence, and the world's major countries before the U.S. huge expansion of the expansion of liquidity (such as the United Kingdom 697 billion U.S. dollars, 500 billion euros in Germany, France, 360 billion euros, 85 billion euros of Austria, South Korea 240 billion U.S. dollars in financial rescue plan, etc.), so the dollar could reverse expansion of manufacturing effective strategic space, the dollar to be strong or weak in its capability to do between. In fact, we never believe that the U.S. financial system, the lack of liquidity, financial institutions and financial institutions and mutual distrust between the real economy can be understood as the prevention of risks during the crisis, the intentional or malicious acts. The U.S. government's rescue, only trying to create expansion of dollar liquidity is expected to be nothing more.
Second, the five investment banks were by a week the Dow fell about 22%, the Dow set up 112 years, from the drop down relative or absolute number of unprecedented . In such a hostile market environment, has the gall to lift ban on shorting, leading to October 9 further cliff-style stock index plunged. Save the big stock market crash in 1929 when the crisis is the Branch Li Chi (Calvin Coolidge) in power, first of all is the beginning of a collection of funds for short selling on a large scale investigation. In this case also allows for short selling, which only shows that the U.S. is still the boss's attitude is still a strong desire to maintain the original order in U.S. dollars, trying to complete all major countries in the world, the expansion of liquidity and commodity markets and global stock markets plunged, and then choose the opposite strategy.
In fact, the United States is a step by step according to the implementation of this strategy. Has successfully completed the first step, that bailout bill passed in Congress after the passage of the bill is not as eager as before, to quickly implement the right bill to grant the issuance of treasury bonds in order to rescue U.S. financial institutions, but only manufacturing dollar liquidity will be expanded expectations. Expected to result in the respective countries in order to protect the interests of international trade must follow the expansion of liquidity, the result is a moratorium on executions in the United States Bill of action to stimulate Europe, Japan, South Korea, Russia and other countries against the dollar while liquidity expansion is expected to advance the implementation of the liquidity hedging policy.
Therefore, the objective to the United States without any change or deterioration in macroeconomic conditions and under the conditions of the appreciation of the dollar amount of currency to be based temporarily maintain the dollar's international credibility and a strong position . At the same time it brings the commodity market exodus of speculative funds, and for the U.S. economy needs to restore economic growth, low inflation environment. Business organizations and financial institutions collapse in the stock and commodity markets conditions, and no longer appear more intense than before the bankruptcy and merger, relative to the horror of Europe, the U.S. assets and euro assets than government bonds but appear to be stable and reliable.
will be performed by a bill is expected but not yet implemented, through the international macro-monetary policy is relatively poor, so as not firing a single shot had reached the U.S. bailout to stabilize the market temporarily in purposes. This fully reflects the way the U.S. government's macroeconomic control of skilled and seasoned. The world, especially Europe, Japan, Britain, Switzerland and ahead of the radical reaction to U.S. financial crisis, but international, won the United States to Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan, Korea and other countries, the relative comparative advantage.
recent strength against the U.S. dollar price of oil, enhance the value of the dollar, the relative advantage of the initial recovery of the dollar it's credit status. Although the cost of U.S. exports are subject to certain constraints, but still worth watching comprehensive comparative advantage, which follow the U.S. policies and actions provide a good foundation. As long as the dollar continues to maintain a strong U.S. government can make to the international community to further rescue financing bonds, and once successful issue of bonds, the dollar's strong position is likely to be reversed, regardless of commodity futures or stock markets, the dollar exchange rate, interest rate policy will Objectively, a certain reversal of the magnitude of the international financial market is still not stable. However, in this sharp decline and rise up between the recovery, the U.S. government has been able to successfully enough to rescue the 700 billion U.S. dollars debt for sale to the international community to restore the U.S. financial and economic order to obtain the required liquidity. As to the rising oil prices and the stock market, the dollar fell and the inflation increase again, the United States already has enough liquidity for new responses.
Up to now, from the performance of countries, Asia countries, especially the Chinese government's response is rational. How the new U.S. treasury bonds issued by the international community recognized and receive the subscription, is the second-step strategy for the next few months the U.S. government the key to success. The end result of this strategy is to issue bonds to the international community, unable to how to do? Sent out later how to act? Perhaps this should be our closer track the U.S. financial crisis, a landmark event in the development of
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