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22125067 2010 年 05 月 23 日 11:26 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Miscellaneous world Kan
; ; to Japan's br>Suan 2010-05-22 00:55:48
; a new round of Sino-US Strategic Economic Dialogue will be held once again become the focus of the RMB exchange rate. Over the years, many Chinese scholars and officials believe that the occurrence of the Japanese bubble economy, and certainly must be due to yen appreciation, and this is when the Americans on. Looking back at history, however, appreciation of the yen is certainly a primer bubble occurred, but this does not mean the inevitable appreciation of the yen and led directly to the Japanese bubble economy.
year actually brought about the rapid appreciation of the yen is Japan's rapid economic growth rate fell, and frightened at the time this case policy makers, and led to the then Japanese government (because it was not independent of the Bank of Japan, where the two as one) in the formulation of economic policy when the miscarriage of justice, the implementation of the long-term economic stimulus it gave birth to the unprecedented economic bubble.
In September 1985 the U.S. Britain, France and China signed the Plaza Accord at 5, the $ 1 would be able to exchange more than 240 yen (up to early 2005, more than 260 exchange yen), followed by a period of less than one year U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate fell below the 160 yen mark (in 1986), or more than 33%, in other words during the Japanese yen increased by more than 50%. At the same time growth rate of slightly less than the Nikkei figure, but the real GDP growth rate never fell more than 7% about 3%.
Therefore the Japanese government in 1987 implemented the 3 consecutive years of economic stimulus, especially because of trade frictions, the United States agricultural exports have also been applied pressure, these policies to stimulate domestic demand for the purpose of the Bank of Japan (Central Bank) and this echoes the policy interest rates early next year from 86 a fall of 5% 5 in February 1987 down to 2.5% in the (Japanese zero interest rate used to think that high now.) At that time, consumer prices (CPI) is more stable, as the currency of the patron saint of the central bank does not feel the inflationary pressure, thereby promoting the interest rate environment this extremely loose until May 1989.
However, as early as the Japanese economy bottomed out in November 1986, real GDP growth in Q1 1987, less than 2%, to end the year and early 1988, just one year to rebound to about 10%. The policy of expanding domestic demand is still in the initial stage of the Japanese economy even discuss such a strong proof of the resilience of the Japanese manufacturing industry to adapt quickly to the benefits of the exchange rate of force decline in the problem, relying on quality rather than the currency undervalued to maintain the highly competitive.
into 1987, although the yen has been repeated, but only until early 1988 for 1 year from the U.S. dollar rose to around 160 yen 120 yen the extent of appreciation slowed to 33%, and sideways in the current year adjustments, since 1988, has been devalued. However, land prices in Japan's stock bubble began the real process. Nikkei from 23,000 in 1988 surged to around the end of 1989, around 39,000, an increase of almost 70%, while the yen from the beginning of 1989 more than 120 Japanese yen hit a the end of 160 yen, down about 25%. It is difficult to determine the exchange rate between the price with the asset has a definite positive correlation. But one thing is very clear, the side effects of the appreciation of the yen instead of binding the policy-makers worry too much about the determination.
In addition, this situation in Japan is not entirely due to U.S. pressure, to some extent it also reflects the Japanese government and the elite's intentions. In 1985, the Nakasone Cabinet due to trade frictions has begun to prepare measures to cope with pressure from the U.S. well, and set up a restructuring of the economy will be the advisory body, calling for international coordination is by the then president of the Bank of Japan Maekawa Chunxiong the lead. April 7, 2006 submitted a famous Sichuan Chunxiong Maekawa report, its purpose is not by addressing the current account balance at the same time to achieve the purpose of enhancing the quality of national life. The report's three main ideas: increasing domestic demand, open markets, financial liberalization, is considered to be subsequently set the basic policy of Japan's economic policy.
has become a basic principle to be justified by subsequent governments, that is, its purpose is to focus on improving the quality of national life. On this basis, expanding domestic demand an important part of a large number of public utilities - infrastructure projects ready for implementation, this is not wrong, but worse, many of these projects is less than the actual demand can not be economically viable. Other cities, such as relaxing the constraints of land floor area ratio, the corporate tax rate from 42% to 30%, the highest personal income tax rate from 70% to 40%, goods tax is revoked, etc., there are numerous measures ranging. Companies are no longer concerned about the main swarm for investment, calling them Japanese people are immersed in the joy instant, but I do not know is that most benefit wealthy, tax cuts and relaxed financial environment so that they flock to the hands of a large number of idle capital stock and land investment.
but also note that non-human, financial liberalization, the Japanese asset price inflation is an important promoter. The first Japanese financial liberalization began in the 1970s, early 1990s Hashimoto implementation of the Associated with the bubble economy in this, as early as the year before the Plaza Accord, which is the end of 1984 to set the tone for the 5, the Japan-US yen and the dollar was a report the Commission proposed internal and external financial and capital freedom of. 3 at the end of 1985, the then Ministry of Finance (the MOF) announced the deregulation of banking and securities business measures, 1 week after the Plaza Accord and more large periodic interest rate liberalization came into effect. Unfortunately, the low interest rate environment, interest rate liberalization, the role of a very bad, because competition reduces the interest rate spread, the bank changed order to win, low interest rates but also reduces the cost of bank funds, and some bank loans secured on land ratio even up to 120%,
tory burch 2011, and usually is controlled at 70% or less, such an environment to stop the rise in asset prices is immune. Can be said that Japan's bubble economy is expanding in the spiral structure made of
Today, China is facing the environment is indeed very similar to Japan and then, diplomatic pressure on the exchange rate, interest rates have the internal pressure, although the financial crisis had, however, not yet solid economic recovery, expanding domestic demand, open markets, financial liberalization facing policy makers is a major proposition. But we have to understand Japan's flexible lessons, in fact, the lesson of Japan is not the appreciation of national currency does not appreciate, but how to coordinate the timely adjustment of various internal and external relations policy, do something, but do not let that stop reforms pace. We want to see no matter how many external factors can be used to justify the formation and the Japanese bubble economy burst from the Past and Present from the rigid thinking eventually led to economic decision-making caused by insufficient flexibility. China can
Another lesson learned is: top-down reform plan must be after full investigation from the bottom-up research and there are plans step by step implementation of the. Maekawa report is quite a forward-looking, however, in addition to elements of the Japanese economy than the manufacturing sector did not seem to keep up and adapt, not even really need this rapid change. After 1987, more financial-related reform measures announced and implemented open, however, financial institutions and not as it was expected that the realization of a wide range of competition, although the increase in bank mergers, but no decision-making efficiency would expect significant upgrade, in addition to assets worth mentioning once outside the envy of the world, earning capacity, etc., or hesitate. Broker in a number of overseas acquisitions, the last just put a few computers, officers can not be a replacement to go with the system. Japan's financial institutions in the 1990s did not even have enough to adapt to competition policy and the Big Bang, after Hashimoto sigh full of Yuanhui, but it also shows that the Japanese government did not draw lessons from the bubble economy .
from these years of observation, the top Chinese central bank to financial liberalization is overly optimistic, while opponents argued that this is the trap of foreign forces, have a certain resistance to emotions, Although the reforms associated with risk, but not the ostrich policy of reform is clearly weak, the reality is the lack of flexibility in the financial system will certainly lead to the potential growth rate of China's economic decline and to the future security of the financial system a great risk, however, necessarily involve financial reform to the financial needs of the industry, the financial system to guide the industrial development of course, but it must be to rely on the industry, which involves the overall co-ordination arrangements for government, that the national development strategy, the result is bound to be financial reform will be a longer process. Again, Warm heart, Cool head, some things hurried, some things may slow.
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