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Old 05-25-2011, 03:34 AM   #1
alicetrade9i
 
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Default 利比亚问题与石油:利比亚问题将陷入长期僵局

,谁也吃不了谁。石油价格将长期维持在USD100 以上。油价这波上涨与08年的急涨急跌不同,必然是长期在100美元以上缓慢爬升。
  2.欧元与日元:10年欧元危机与11年日本大地震后,欧元与日天职别被神秘力气托起,然 后连创新高。 无论是从负债水平,仍是从资产回报水平,欧元与日圆都不足以支持现在的汇率水平。笔者以为,有人在制造欧元 与日圆的「堰塞 湖」,特别是日元——缓缓地托起,然后忽然地摔下,以此制造一场大通缩。
  3. 黄金与白银: 现在买黄金白银就比如5000点进入中国股市,赚钱是小概率事件。这一波黄金为什么会涨?就是为了把油价抬 到USD100以上,进而引爆各国的通胀问题。劝告那些现在还在炒以人民币计价的黄金期货友人最好歇手,由 于以美元计价的黄金涨幅终极会被人民币升值的幅度吃掉。 至于白银么,已经进入了顶部拉升阶段。
  4. 中国通胀问题: 中国的通胀是输入型通胀:以石油价格上涨带动原资料的上涨,以大量外汇涌入带来本币超发。千万不要信任“2 011年下半年有效掌握通胀”的鬼话。以中国央行目前控制通胀的手段:数目型控制(进步存款预备金率)跟本 钱型节制(加息)无奈解决基本问题。摆在央行眼前的只剩下人民币升值这条不归路。
  中国央行目前把持通胀可用的手段如下:
  1. 下策: 持续加息加存款筹备金率,国民币继承升值;以行政手腕压力煤电油等因素的价钱,人为压低CPI 。
  2. 中策: 对热钱涌入预收10-30%的危险计提金,并明白表态必要时推出联系汇率制度。
  3. 上策: 推广食物券制度,加大对社会底层的福利投入(特殊是是对农业及农夫的补助),对高耗能产品、环境传染产品出 口征收特别环境税。 同时废弃根据CPI调剂金融政策的做法。
  现在各国的日子都不好过,就看谁先逝世,ferragamo bag;谁能多坚持5分钟就能博得成功。只要中国不再替美国消化通胀,石油价格在USD100以上,美国的CPI 也就要到达5%左右,美国国会必定举办听证会请求政府控制通胀,中国的通胀问题也可得到临时化解。只有中国 能保持到两房债券全体还本付息,当前美国想用金融手段搞中国将是难上加难。
  如果中国政府未能及时调整金融及财政策略,cheap jimmy choo handbags,中国很有可能陷入一场大通缩。
  第二条相似于金融锁国,第三条类似于让利于民。中国央行那帮人都是被凯恩斯主义及货币主义洗过脑的,他 们又心存幸运不舍得割舍好处,只有到问题极其重大他们才会被动地做出反映。
  5. 中国楼市:请不要拿中国的M2说事,那些被房地产固化的货币不属于流畅中的货币。在现有的接洽汇率制度下, 以中国政府目前的调控手段不足以控制房价继续上涨,如果哪天中国房价下跌,monster beats,最大的杀手就是日元。目前中国未做好应对房价下跌的准备,房价下跌中国则陷入大通缩,实体经济随房地产一 起死掉。剧烈的通货膨胀+ 激烈的通货紧缩无疑发布一个国家实体经济的死刑。
  6. 人民币升值: 这多少年中国股市及楼市玩的都是人民币升值预期。当初欧元及日元被人为托高,假如欧元及日元对美元汇率下跌 30-50%,即便人民币对美元汇率不升值,大家也会感到人民币被高估了,中国股市与楼市还玩的下去么?
  7. 短期一个主要指标: 看一个月内美联储是否加息。如果美联储加息则表明美国乐意维持目前各国货币间绝对的均衡,QE所制造的美元 将继续迟缓流入其他国家; 如美国没有再一个月内加息,则新印刷的美元会加速流入其他国家, 这些国家的资产价格将会进入最后的疯涨阶段,而后暴跌。
  8. QE:QE的本质就是印刷新的美元去偿还那些老的美元债权。 会不会有QE3, 我不晓得。 等老美的债务还的差未几的时候做作就不需要QE了。等老美须要为他们的新能源工业搞一次大融资的时候,天然 就会有强势美元政策了。
  9. 三年后再来反思一下08年的金融危机:为了保持美国政府的及美公民众宏大的财政及福利支出,美元管理者们滥 发美元;为了维持美国大众的生涯程度,他们发明出了不拘一格的金融产品接收那些超发的美元- 这种做法叫“金融立异”。 当金融翻新这个花招玩不下去,大批美元行将回流到现货市场造成更大范围的通货膨胀时,美元管理者们人为地制 作了一场“通货紧缩”--也就是08年的那场“金融危机”。其余国家政府被吓坏了,纷纭开动印钞机应答“通货压缩”。由此,美元变成 了一群被滥发的货币中最不烂的那个;美元危机化解了,其他国度的货泉危机降临了。不得不否认,美元治理者们 是一帮哲学家也是一帮艺术家。
  10. 中国房价与通胀:请大家不要抱怨通胀之祸了,09-10年,哪个中国人的房产不增值了一倍,collegecoach,那么农民出产的食粮是不是也该涨一倍呢??生平最恶感一边自吹“我的屋子增值N倍了”一边骂娘“物价又涨 了,GCD还让不让人活”的舆论。中国的农民无法享受房产增值的快感,中国农民无法长期赔本经营。最有权力 抱怨通胀之祸的是农夫。
  11. 不要埋怨社会轨制的分歧理,更不要被洗脑。金融问题的本源在社会制度及文明,单纯看着K线图, KDJ, MACD这些指标做投资就如同看着后视镜开车。难怪索罗斯自称为“业余哲学家”.
  11. 2013年前投资策略: 如果你有投性能力,则可继续享受这最后的猖狂。 如果你不投契才能,则应该悄悄地等候。笔者预计人民币的历史性光辉将在2012年前停止,人民币的资产泡沫 将在2013年前幻灭。现在应当开端斟酌跨境投资了。 将来很美,必定很美,条件是咱们还活着。
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Old 05-25-2011, 03:40 AM   #2
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133305 2009 年 11 月 14 日 01:46 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
disciples,new balance sneakers, often follow the Nina to the Man Duosi fortress, listening to the souls of the words derive wisdom.

in the They appear with the same look, the wizard does not know their inner beauty or suddenly saw the wisdom of the original inspiration came from his.

When Noel Numan Empire, Sorenstam is still evil in Middle-earth when Manwei decided to send five with the Maia Sauron considerable strength to the Middle-earth to help and encourage claims against the elves and humans Lun. But there were only Kulunier (Saruman) voluntarily assume this task, so Manwei find another take on the role of four Maia, the European network for one of them. They are the embodiment of the elderly adult class, since the number Esta force, their ability to limit the memory of the past Wali Nuo has become blurred. European network for Middle-earth was the last to reach the Estado force, when he was in Hong Kong by boat to reach shore gray, shipbuilders Sedan greet his arrival, Sedan see European network for the future to be successful, then the hand Ring of Fire Naya given to him.


no intention of entering the Shire, the hobbit found that the nation had never seen, imagine the surprise inside,new balance outlet, he decided to learn the hobbit, and stained with tobacco habits.

Third Age March 25, 2941,中国人为什么不喜欢读书(转) - Qzone日志, Gandalf and the dwarves at the foot of King Thorin II Fabrice chance encounter, without this chance, story will not happen. Sorin was preparing to return home from the West, his temporary residence in the fabric of a night manager, Gandalf is the same, about two years he visited Charles did not,new new balance shoes, then hurry and very tired due to the distribution management of temporary accommodation.

bitter Si Suolun Gandalf again returns to the forces, he was afraid of the history of Solon and the dragon spear a cooperation, and to stop the evil forces back Ange Ma, the only dwarf the Iron Hills. The Sorin has his distress, his ancestors during the period of the Kingdom has been a history of the destruction of the spear, in addition withstand the foot of the king's name for nothing, he wanted to revenge, reply meritorious ancestors, this idea has been echoed in my mind.

of Gandalf's trying to come up there was interrupted by Sorin, so they cooperate, forcing half of the hobbit Bilbo Gandalf? Baggins to join their group, to the east treasure hunt. Gandalf found the enemy fencing Glamdring, Bilbo also found at this time supreme Lord of the Rings.


the original is lost in the Supreme Lord of the Rings, so encourage him to give up the ring, Bilbo's nephew Frodo is his successor? Baggins inherited the supreme Lord of the Rings. Gandalf knows the only way to destroy the Supreme Lord of the Rings is to the end of volcanic lava thrown into the flames, so orders Frodo and his gardener Sam Weiss? Zhanji with the same Supreme Lord of the Rings to Rivendell.

Rivendell meeting, with the Supreme Lord of the Rings Frodo voluntarily dispose of end of volcanoes, Gandalf, together with four hobbits (Frodo, Sam, Pippin, Merry), two human (Aragon, Bo Luomo), a wizard (Legolas), a dwarf (Gimli), Lord of the Rings co-expedition group, corresponding to the nine Nazg Soren.

Lord of the expedition in the winter to board Karan Las Hill Mount Caradhras, lost due to cold weather across the Misty Mountains to find another channel, they entered Moria Moria, Pippin left a piece of small stone and wake Moria Balrog, Gandalf and demons left over from the era of Gou Si Balrog battle,new balance running shoes, both fall into both the deep Turin.


white robe

Gandalf Gandalf has been down during the fall (with say three days and two nights), Balrog also in the next He was severely burned, and then with the fall into deep water. There is the foundation of the earth, the two way battle,new balance shoes, straight into the Misty Mountains to the peak of the endless band. Alexis Gill

the peak in the West, Gandalf down with the Balrog, but he wasted too much, this die. Gandalf does not return the soul of Man Wei at Amen Island, but was sent directly to a sub (the universe), the front of Elune Vita, Vita revealed he was given even greater force in Iraq, and return to the original dead body at birth. Gandalf Saruman place of betrayal, promotion to become a white robe, witch is the first of five.

Gandalf the wind by the king of living eagle king off Luo Lian He went to look for Rose Queen Galadriel,######ual life is really important to you than love to see it, very touching - Qzon, Galadriel heal him, and gave him a beautiful white robe. Gandalf, after the state back into the Fagongsenlin, and Aragon, Legolas and Gimli meet.


Gandalf's European network for multiple names
Olórin, Quenya, the ancient Valinor in the West when the use of name,new balance mens, meaning dreams.
Milan Star Mithrandir, Sindarin, and more used in Gondor, which means
Gandalf Gandalf, the North used, which means
white robes Knight The White Rider, when he lived by the time of impact Shadowfax disease. No.
wind Stormcrow
Yinkanuosi Incánus, the South use.
Scrubber Thark û n, Dwarven, for the dwarves.
gray robe Gandalf Gandalf Greyhame.
[edit]
shape
Gandalf Gandalf shape derived from Norse mythology, Odin image of the original Gandalf appears as an old man with a gray beard, gray cloak (probably Gandalf name corresponding to their gray robe) and a blue pointed hat. While some people know his real, others mistakenly believe that he is only a common magician. Some people also think that Gandalf is a wizard, but he is different with the wizard, the wizard is always young,老肥的婚礼 - Qzone日志, the elderly Gandalf the beginning.

after he became Gandalf white robes, white robes to wear, even the beard and white.


reality of
basically can not think of Tolkien, war are the

more than one wizard
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