Lang Speech Ningbo June 22 China namely facing un

Professor】 【Lang: quite happy to talk about the economic position in Ningbo and mastery issues! We can listen it? Or listen it? ! Then I cried a mini bit longer! Today I want to talk about the topic and members of the daily life! Just mentioned in my presentation, Professor Lang comments very fussy, there is a word, the accuracy is more important, who will not curse it? ! If you concern about my attitudes, you will find that since last year, has come to today, China's economic trends, the tempo is nearly as I alteration, including the stock market! Even the attribute market, this is not my foresight, but I passed a lot of file research, I have come to an inevitable conclusion. I remember early last year to a year phase, the Shenzhen property market is quite hot, when medium reported that people have more reassurance in our economic evolution, the more successful regional economic development in Shenzhen, so real estate will be hot in Shenzhen . You memorize I was the respond? I was wrong, so the hot real estate in Shenzhen Shenzhen's economic development because of more recession! Because the entrepreneurs do not want to dry. So they should invest the money in the enterprise, not investment, and out speculation, so housing prices in all regions of China deserving to the economy aggravate, rather than better! I say this word, many people disapprove, or even understand! To this day in January, data loosened entirely proves our point of view, the closure of enterprises in Shenzhen is nearly in the country.
Andy Xie: look by Crude oil is after hours That is a lot of entrepreneurs in the commerce process, they base that the investment they face rapidly deteriorating business surroundings, so he did not absence to do business, and do it? Speculation on the stock mall! This is caused by the Guangdong district, the cardinal cause of rising real possession prices.
is a few months ahead, and I said, the place downtown real estate prices remain mighty, when the price of housing will decline in worth in the vicinity of, cause? Money out of these companies do not do industrial, and investment, definitely buy a house. Why did the price will fall it? Because the macro-control, people who truly want to furnish housing. One month before the Shanghai real estate low real estate trend is the lofty educate nigh the turn! But I think 高价房 remain muscular, the cheap down. High-priced real estate still strong, will be strong for how long? He depends on the movement of entrepreneurs, preferably than watching the movements of the economy, look at his capital flows, to which side to go, recent economic trends in a muff, and even the management policy for the future of real estate was divided, and even government agencies have appeal to foreigners carry out his real estate to open up and give more money to help real estate because real estate prices plunge, then if, inevitably guide to more serious fiscal crisis, the impact of the financial crisis, the entire Chinese economy exception complex.
Today, I wanted this opportunity, and you talk in such a complex economic environment, entrepreneurs, how to understand the Chinese economy, but also in the last year, I told an entrepreneur, if you are 07 feel melancholy day if 08 days will be painful. I speak the fact, this have to be better than last year, worse, in 2005 net profit rate of China's manufacturing industry and 10%, and 06 5% 2% 07, 08 should be negative, and net profit margin should be is negative, 09 years? Should be even worse! This is what I give you a set of the future! Why do I have such a determination, because our industry is facing unprecedented in the history of reform and prologue experience a unique section of the flute. This phenomenon is worthy of serious attention to all of you entrepreneurs.
I want to talk to you about the heading you are maximum concerned about, you think Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces may agree in high-tech it? Do you think your hereafter is it? You tell me. So in the starting of today's speech, I heaved so many answers, I wanted to use my findings, all strung attach these phenomena, as well as one of the most care is the stock market problems, which is the end of last year in Beijing, was asked how the stock market I go, I follow how to obtain my economic theory, not have to go up, of course, many people throw away too beautiful, why there is such judgments, I want to today's speech to always the strings in these phenomena together. These two days, many scholars still talk on behalf of the Crown, of course, I think their statements are wrong. Many companies are facing difficulties in how to do it? Is the marrow of macroeconomic norm and control along the embark it,Lacoste Tennis Trainers! ? We know what does that mean? Is a grain of truth the end of final year to send macro-control policy is basically a important crisis, the words I said two years ago, and unfortunately I am talking about are made of, and what variety of emergency, let us think! Do you think that today's Chinese undertakings are overheating it? ! If the overheating Chinese companies, how your day is so reducing? ! Even because the manufacturing sector entrepreneurs, you feel the letter of the flute segment and not overheat.
why the Government is overheating, even the use of such a magnificent outlet to control inflation. This month, we are a small country in Asia is Vietnam, there was a serious financial crisis, and the fuse on the time and space from the national inflation, inflation as high as 25%, ordinary people penetrate the continued devaluation of the Vietnamese money, they change U.S. dollars for euros, the currency for other countries, even for gold. In the end find that very complicated for U.S. dollars, or you changed, how should we do? Started buying a lot of hoarding goods, hoping to hedge against inflation. Vietnam, regional banks are unwilling to do on behalf of real estate shopping, do not want to do with the Vietnamese currency,Lacoste Camden Trainers, alarming devaluation. The impact of this phenomenon makes our government more resolved to carry out macro-control. Because our government believes that China's problems today is the excess liquidity.
you might ask me, what is excess liquidity. Simply put, excess liquidity is too much money in your hands! After your hands more money to buy the building and causing a property bubble, you buy a stock and causing the stock market bubble, you buy the product and causing inflation. So you use the excess liquidity that could explain the reason for all the phenomena seen, including last year's property market bubble, the stock market bubble, and inflation, so our macro-control is a continuation of the past 4 years, constricting policy has been even now.
in 07 years you confused, because the property market bubble, the stock market bubble, inflation, the money you can too simple to unravel, but this year, you can not see the housing bubble, and you worried that the property market to fall, the stock market not to talk about it. Stock market break, 2700 points, 2800 points, but likewise likely to decline. Excess liquidity that was it? ! There is indeed inflation, perhaps even more serious! 93, two days before oil prices rose more than 6 about a liter, you have to think up enough, all of you gentlemen know do not know how much money the oil 93 in Hong Kong? Is twenty blocks. Comrades, you can assume, if we rise to the point where the oil is what kind of terrors! You do with excess liquidity to annotate it? Let the new economic phenomenon has excess liquidity theory bankrupt!
end of last year and I adopt the Southern People Weekly interview, these many of his prelude, while the citizen specialists and government officials believe that the stock market spume housing bubble inflation is caused when excess liquidity, said Professor Lang is not ! Professor If Lang is right, the nation is wrong,Buy Lacoste! To June 2008, I am sorry to tell you! Are all wrong! I was right! Otherwise you will not take the period to listen to my speech!
Why? This phenomenon has led to today, I speak with you today because of this phenomenon faced by the manufacturing environment for business investments from 05, 06 caused by the deterioration of starting speed. So why the share price rose in 2006, succeeded not because the share reform, the share reform of the inevitable failure in terms of financial programs in my 05's very clear, the share reform will fail! To 2008 we only know what I say is right, why the stock rose 06 it? Not share reform success! But what? Environmental degradation, but an investment business, to give up investment opportunities for entrepreneurs to invest the money that should be out of stock, causing shares to rise, we therefore start from the 06 to smell the taste of economic flute section, rather than economic overheating, which is my theory! Why do so many experts and scholars
diagnosis, said today's Chinese economy is overheating it? I tell you, it is because local governments and relevant departments to enhance the GDP elementary thermal engineering, for instance, 07 real estate, steel, concrete, rendition engineering, picture engineering, financing, banking, etc., these sectors are hot, why heat, because local government works to enhance the GDP, it overheated it! This is 20-30%, 70-80% of other private economic sector is the elementary cold. In other words, today's China is the world's distinctive, solitary dual economic environment, we are also hot, and cold, and the government ministries concerned overheating, the relevant departments of private enterprises is essential too cold. Why June of this year, the economic situation began to rapidly corrode? Is the macro produced a sequence of problems. You think about the retinue in the dual economy, government austerity steer is the outcome? For sample, raising interest rates, raise the reserve percentage, on what is against dual economy, this macro adjustment of excess liquidity is helpful, but today the problem is not excess liquidity, the goal is wrong!
If the target wrong, the real problem is the dual economic environment, you shove the excess liquidity that control what the results of macro adjustment, you can buffet the 3 pipes complete all entrepreneurs. The 1st pipeline is the bank, from the cold a lot of private corporate sector to recover the funds, call the Government continue to engage in hot areas where infrastructure, which is why the austerity years down the growth rate of broad money is still in the 18% high level of money afford so much why do not enjoy the benefits all entrepreneurs do? Because the money via the banking system to recover from your hands more money to local authorities in local development, and that the department so cold colder, so that overheating of the sector more heat.
second pipeline is in the private sector entrepreneurs in cold what he faced the environment? Rising interest rates, bank deposit reserve ratio rise, the commute rate rise, there is the fatigue compact law, and here I want to be a statement, the labor contract law itself, its definition is significant, I believe that the country people, including entrepreneurs and employees , for the essential signification of the labor compact law would accede. The problem is so premonitory statutory, there is not even discussed controversy, more seriously, without any pilot to full fire. The valid, statutory good rush momentum, a beyond beat to the business environment for investment in manufacturing. Coupled with the rising interchange rate, macro adjustment, exchange rate, the labor contract law, in other ingredients, so that these entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector over the cold does not go dry again, and let him down profit margins year after year, he will not want to do , so put a lot of investment should not invest money from the department had taken out the cold, into the stock market speculation to the overheated sectors, and this is the opening of 2006 rose, beginning in 2006 is the main reason for rising house prices , it is because in bin economic environment, a large number of cold-sector funding into the sector caused by overheating, is not excess liquidity.
third pipeline, the phenomenon I cry Haier, Haier own shop and go to raise 1.5 million real estate fund, said it was a lot of media strategy for a fashionable start Haier, and I said no, it was not a dry Haier, he cold device manufacturing sector to do, he did not go on, favor Haier that the manufacturing sector began to take back a lot of money into the overheated sectors, dry developers, because the manufacture does not go dry!
the operation of First Bank, the second dealing with their own entrepreneurs, and the third action of such enterprises as Haier, production money from the flow of cooling the overheated manufacturing sector continued to go, resulting in a serious financial reversal This is why the four-year austerity down, will fail, because the department is too cold, due to the wastage of funds has convert colder, more flute section, this is your current situation, the overheated sectors, due to receiving a colossal digit of funds, including real estate therefore, more inflation. So what is dual economy is the result? Dual economy below the impact of the austerity, the department will make too cold colder, hotter overheated sectors.
fact, I believe I have said here, what you understood apt such a thing.
I told you about one economic issue, that is, the austerity wrong? Austerity itself is not wrong. The problem is, numerous of us do not always read thoroughly, as we present the implementation of the austerity policy of the United States read a freshman textbook policy is first-year macroeconomics American universities, our policy is to that level. Why is this policy efficacious in the United States, China has not fruit in it? ! Because the U.S. is a USD economy, China is the dual economy.
believe that many have read the macroeconomics, I want to tell you that the conscience of macroeconomics is a dollar economy, or to failure, what is a dollar economy to overheat on the national heat, cold cold country, in which circumstances to raise interest rates, raise bank reserve ratio to effective. China is a dual economy, you raise interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio, the overheated sectors must make more heat, and cold sectors colder, it's that simple.
I was in favor of the government to control inflation, because the example of Vietnam, inflation is very macabre, but you have to control inflation, inflation is the first thing you have to understand how come, my apply is not much ! If you understand the causes of inflation in China, another dealing with inflation, you will not feel a little better it? Do not you think this is right.
Currently, we are simply that our society too much money to buy something, anything to price boosts, thereby increasing the interest rate and reserve ratio back to put the community resources that can curb inflation in the ! Is not it? So simple you? ! I will not be accustomed as simple as the lecture! Last night I came from Shanghai, in the eight, when I want to buy the fruit after banquet,Womens Lacoste Arin Trainers, to buy cherries, I asked fifty dollars a pound, I was scared to bound,Lacoste Trainers UK, I do not dare to buy, I bought a orange. Professor Lang Hunde can you afford it? ! No, I was 12 last asked him this time is fifty dollars. I asked him how much the U.S. imports is it? He is 138, I only bought two oranges out! Not afford to eat it!
and fair eat with the media, correspondents see the first thing I instruct you lost Lang. I said, so he said why. I said, your pork, and I took the opportunity to deduct from.
you think the amount of pork rose, cherry prices, fuel prices, because the money in your hand also much? ! Do you comprehend economics, you do no talk approximately economy methodology, you can understand a folk talk it out above the right. Pork prices, namely because you too many money, if you have more money, you ambition go to buying meat? ! Even the price of rice is excess liquidity, do not you had enough money to eat Wu Wan to it? ! You ass to meditation, you kas long a######cess liquidity namely ridiculousness. How can people be, hands the money to eat extra rice could it? ! It can not can not buy pork, not to buy a cherry, there may be presumption stocks! How much of our food prices, according to the lawful bulletin of 22%, pork 76%, really higher than this. Food prices rose so quickly, I can acquaint you, you can detect anybody cause, do not talk too much money above hand because we could not have the wealthy people do not eat two bowls of rice that he might buy a luxury, might buy LV bags and food prices testified so dissimilar job of excess liquidity is wrong. Why up so much? ! We ought start speaking from the dual economy.
inside the dual economy, expansion of the sector is overheated sectors, so the price rise, which is understandable. So, you think the sector will fall cold it? Not. Cold sector prices rose even more, if it is overheated prices are rising too chilly, and pork, cherries are a production of chilly sector. How the price of pork rose, with the cherry is the same for the uncomplicated reason that Professor Lang's theory, personal entrepreneurs raising pork is the same with you, merely you establish something another, he made pigs, levels are alike to the investment he faces rapidly deteriorating business environment, what is the import of fared prices rose, and swine pestilence, which makes their environmental degradation, according to my theory of how he would do, he will not pig out to be invest the money to the pigs do not poll, and went to stock speculation, so today's issues, rustic pig planters supplier of pork from the elapse into today's pork user, it's that easy. That is, when afterward you kill pigs, and you find no follow-up pig, then pig on the reward of government say that you two hundred dollars, if you're not careful you assist the Government's decease five hundred of the funeral expenses, yet we alternatively not to support it? Why, because they can not recompense for business losses caused by environmental degradation.
Why so priceless soybean oil, and cherry Why so expensive, this is the second reason of inflation, the first reason for speaking apparently, is the dual economy, the overheated sector due to overheated prices, too cold sector due to cold, lack of making, according to the price rise. There is also a more serious problem that the globe is facing a national all international inflation. International inflation and this allows us to import up to 138 Cherry, which makes you eat imported inflation, oil prices rose, the latest hot newspaper this month because of the international rice price is too high, too low, the price of rice in China there have been heavy smuggling of Guangdong,Lacoste Trainers 2011, is the inverse of the smuggling of rice sold to the Chinese abroad, times have changed so fast. Guangdong before smuggling is go inside, now go out, we subsidize our petrol price is too low around the world to use our oil, the world's helicopter flew to China to fill up and then fly back out, Hong Kong's oil is twenty a few chips of a liter, we are 6, the Hong Kong to Shenzhen refueling truck, and I suspect he is the container tank, because it is too advantageous to it! I want to disunite. You think about it, If I use the price of ten thousand a day to rent a truck, I filled 6 dollars of oil, three times I went back to Hong Kong can acquire money. Pay any more than it! So this is how the international oil prices, the price rise is how come? Currently these three months, is concentrated train, train at home, out of clear, today I was the first time to the Ningbo entrepreneurs speaking, as long as you understand it! You are the most famous economist, can not solve all problems whereas, the purpose of today, I let all of you expressly die!