Why can not you become a Warren Buffett

Value of the investment guru Karaman have such a statement, the value of investment looks very simple, it seems that everyone can become a value investor, but he can not be true that value investors are basically determined by their genes, if you have potential in this area, as long as a contact to this concept, you will immediately agree. This is the same view with Warren Buffett, Buffett also believes that if a person agree with this investment philosophy, 5 minutes will be accepted. If you really like the way they speak, in fact, most people will never become a value investor, we can not change things do not have to work hard. But I hope that the real value of the investment philosophy that greater access to people who have potential. Oh, I understand that this is a public good behavior! So I think that is a value from the investment philosophy of the promoter. Se Leer recently saw the article in this special recording.

Why can not you become a Warren Buffett?马克塞勒尔 (The author is founder of hedge fund Sellers Capital Fund,asics, has served as chief equity strategist at Morningstar, the paper made its presentation at Harvard.)
I am about to tell you is: I'm not here to teach you how to become a great investor. Instead, I'll tell you why very few of you who dare to expect to become such a person. If you spend enough time to study Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Bruce Burke Markowitz, Bill Miller, Eddie Lambert and Bill Ackerman and other giant investment community, and you will understand what I mean.
I know everyone here, beyond the ordinary intelligence, and is the result of hard work to reach today's level. You are among the most intelligent person smart. However, even today, I say you did not listen to other things, at least remember one thing: you almost have no chance to become a great investor. You just very, very low probability, such as 2% or less. This has taken into consideration that you are highly intelligent and hard working people, and soon from this country's top business schools get the MBA degree in fact. If only the present large numbers of people from a randomly selected sample, then become a great investor will be less likely, such as one in 5000. You will have more advantages than the average investor, but the long term, you stand little chance of the crowd the reason is that your IQ is much, much read books and magazines, have or will have in the future the number of occupational experience, have no effect. Many people have these qualities, but almost no one in the entire career manipulation compound rate of return of 20% or 25%.
career compound rate of return to achieve 20% of the people, but in case you do not understand the assertion that it is difficult in advance who would be. To the good side, although most of you people are unable to achieve in his career, a 20% compound rate of return, but you will still do better than the average investor, because you are a Harvard MBA. A person can learn how to be above the general level of investors. If you are smart, hard-working and educated, can do good enough in the investment community to keep a good paying job. Do not become a great investor, you can also earn millions of dollars. After a year of hard work, high intelligence and hard study, you can learn in a few points beyond the average. There is no need for me to say today, frustrated, if not Warren Buffett, you will also have a truly successful and well-paid career. But you can not always be a 20% compound rate of return to wealth accumulation, unless your head in the eleven-year-old, when there is a certain character. I'm not sure this is natural or learned, but if you go to adolescence has not this quality, then you will no longer have. Before the completion of brain development,Vibram Five Fingers Classic On Sale, you may be able to more than other investors, it may not. Came to Harvard and will not change that, read every book on investment will not be this many years of experience will not. If you want to be a great investor, those are only necessary, but not enough, because they can be copied by competitors than - think about a variety of competitive business strategies it. I believe you have been on here or will be on the strategic course. Michael Porter study you may articles and books, this is my self into the business school had before. I benefited from his book, in the analysis of the company were still always use that knowledge. Now, as the company's CEO, what kind of advantage from the cruel to make your competition? How to find the right point to set up a wide range of Buffett calls If technology is your only advantage, then it is not a In this case, your best hope is to be acquired or listed, investors realize that you did not sell all the shares prior to the sustainability of advantage. Technology is the kind of short-lived advantage. There are others, like a good management team,Vibram Fivefingers Kso UNI Blue/Grey Mens Shoes, an advertising campaign encouraging people's minds, or an high-temperature trends. The advantages of manufacturing these things are temporary, but they evolved over time, and the copy can be competitors. It is deeply rooted in corporate culture and every employee who, even if everyone knew how much do what Southwest Airlines, but no one else can duplicate. If your competitors know that you can not copy the secret, that is a structural advantage in that a
In my opinion, actually, only 4 and can be difficult to duplicate and lasting One is economies of scale, Wal-Mart, Procter & Gamble, Home Depot is an example. Another resource is the network effects,vibram five fingers discount, such as eBay, MasterCard, Visa or American Express. The third is the intellectual property, such as patents, trademarks, government license or customer loyalty, Disney, Nike and Genentech that is, there is a world model. The final transfer is the high user costs, payroll processing services company Pei Qi (Paychex) and Microsoft to benefit from this, because the user is turning the high cost of other products.
as companies either create a There are more than 8,000 hedge funds and 10,000 mutual funds, every day millions of individual investors trying to Break the stock market. How do you have an advantage over these people? First, a large number of reading books, magazines, newspapers are not a Anyone can read. Read naturally very important, but will not give you a strong advantage higher than the others, only you do not fall behind. The investment community who have a lot of reading habits, some amount of reading is superior, but I do not think the investment performance and reading was a positive correlation between the number of relations, the accumulation of knowledge you reach a certain critical point, a lot more reading to diminishing returns will be presented. In fact, reading too much news but will hurt the performance of your investment, because it means you start to believe that sales of newspapers and journalists to pour all the nonsense.
In addition, the school let you top MBA, or a Chartered Financial Analyst, PhD, CPA certificate, and so may be dozens of degrees and certificates, will not make you a great investor. Harvard is not the person you be this way, Northwestern University, Chicago, Wharton, Stanford can not. I want to say is, MBA is to learn how to precisely the best way to gain market average rate of return. You can greatly reduce the learning MBA on the road ahead errors. This often can you get a generous salary, even if you farther and farther away from a great investor. You can not spend money to buy either through reading and study to become a great investor. These will not get you in building the
experience is another thing to be over-estimated. Experience is indeed important, but not the resources to gain a competitive advantage, it is only necessary for another ticket. Experience accumulated to a certain point, its value began to diminishing returns. If not, then aged 60, 70 and 80 years old should be the capital of all the great manipulator of the golden age. We all know that is not the case. Therefore a certain degree of experience is required to play this game, but to a certain point, it no longer has more help. It is not investor's economic Charlie Munger said, you can identify who can correctly What is the investor the necessary competitive advantage? Like a company or an industry, investors They and some psychological factors, and psychological factors are deeply rooted in your mind, is a part of you, even if you can not read the books a lot of changes. In my opinion, at least seven traits great investors is a common feature, is the real advantage of resources.
first trait is decisive in to buy stocks when others panic, when the blind optimism in others the ability to sell the stock. Everyone thinks they can do this, but when October 19, 1987, when that day comes (the historic In 1999 (the following year that the Nasdaq crash), the market rose almost every day, you will not allow themselves to sell the stock, because you worry about behind the others. Most people have the wealth management MBA degree and a highly intelligent and have read many books. The end of 1999, these people are convinced that stocks were overvalued, but they can not allow ourselves to withdraw money gaming tables, Buffett said the reason is
The second characteristic is the great investor is extremely fascinated by this kind of game,asics tiger mini cooper, and who have a strong desire to win. They do not just enjoy the fun of investment - investment is their life. They wake up early in the morning, even among the still half asleep, thought the first thing is that they studied the stock, or they consider to sell stock, or their investment portfolio will be the biggest risk is what and how to avoid it. They often find ourselves in the personal life, though they may really like other people, do not have much time to communicate with each other. Always in their minds the clouds, dreaming of stock. Unfortunately, you can not learn this obsession for something that is natural. If you do not have this obsessive-compulsive disorder, you can not become the next Bruce Burke Horowitz (Fairholme Funds, the founder of Warren Buffett by the impact of stock selection ideas, portfolio concentration, low turnover, very few cross-border).
third characteristic is that lessons learned from past mistakes in a strong will. This is difficult for people to do, so great is that investors stand out to learn from their past mistakes in order to avoid repeating the strong desire. Most people would ignore the stupid decisions they have done and continue ahead. I think the word used to describe them is is difficult to avoid repeating mistakes.
fourth trait is common sense based on the risk inherent sense of smell. Most people know that Long-Term Capital Management (the mid-1990s, one of the four major international hedge funds, because the Russian financial crisis of 1998 and the brink of bankruptcy) the story of a PhD from the sixties and seventies a team with the most sophisticated risk analysis model, failed to find the benefit of hindsight obvious problem: they assume too high a risk. They stop and ask yourself: . I believe the best risk control system is common sense, but people still will be used to listen to the views of the computer so that they are safely asleep. They ignore common sense, I see this error again and again in the investment community.
fifth characteristic is that investors have great ideas for their own cherished absolute confidence, even when in the face of criticism. Buffett insisted the network to join the crazy boom, despite the public criticism he has ignored technology stocks. When other people have to give up value investing, Buffett still stays on. negative example. Personally, I was surprised at the majority of investors confidence in the stock they buy the weak. According to Kelly formula (Kelly Formula, a can be used to determine the risks of investing and gambling, the mathematical formula), 20% of the portfolio can be placed on a stock, but many investors put only 2%. Mathematically speaking, the use of Kelly's formula, the 2% of the investment on a stock, the equivalent of betting that it rose only 51% probability, 49% chance of a fall. Why waste time to play the bet it? Group of people holding the annual salary of $ 1,000,000, only to find out which stocks are up 51% probability? Is simply sick.
sixth trait is very easy to use left and right brain, left brain, not just starting (left brain is good at math and organizations). In business school, I have met many talented people. However, who major in finance, write something worthless, they can not look at the problem creatively, and I am quite shocked. Then I see some very smart people think only half of the brain, so that in the world based on enough to make you, but if people want to become a mainstream way of thinking and different enterprises to invest in innovative home, this is not enough. On the other hand, if you are right brain dominant person, you may hate math, and usually can not enter the financial sector has. Therefore, most financial professionals are likely to well-developed left brain, I think this is a problem. I believe a great investor is to play a role on both sides of the brain. As an investor, you need to be calculated, there must be logical and rational investment theory, this is your left brain to do. But you also need to do some additional things, such as subtle clues to judge according to the company's management team. You need to calm down, lays out the current situation in mind the big picture, rather than to analyze Kill. You have to have a sense of humor, humility and basic common sense. And most important, I think you have to be a good writer. Take a look at Buffett, he is the business world one of the most distinguished writer, who is also the ages, one of the best investment is no accident. If you can not write clearly, I think you can not think clearly. If you can not think clearly, you will get into trouble. Many people have a genius IQ, but not to think clearly, even though they will be able to come to mental arithmetic or the price of the bond.
Finally, and most important, but also one of the most unusual features: in the investment process, the ups and downs but did not change among the ability of investment ideas. For most people this is almost impossible. When the stock began to fall, it is difficult to adhere to bear the loss instead of throwing the stock. The overall market decline, it is difficult to determine the cost of buying more shares to make the dilution, or even difficult to determine the money reinvested in stocks. People do not like to bear the pain temporarily, even if there will be better in the long term benefits. Few investors can respond to high rates of return must go through the short-term fluctuations. They will be equivalent to the risk of short-term fluctuations. This is extremely irrational. Risk means that if you bet the wrong treasure, you have to lose money. The fluctuation of the relative short period of time does not mean loss and therefore is not risk, unless you fell to the bottom in the market when the panic, chaos was scared loss position. But most people do not look at the issue this way, their brains do not allow them to think so. Panic instinct invasion, and then cut off the normal ability to think.
I must declare, once people enter adulthood unable to learn these qualities. This time, you become a great future potential investors have been decided. This potential can be obtained through the exercise, but not from scratch, because it is the structure of your brain and is closely related to the experience of childhood. This is not to say that financial education and investment experience of reading is not important. These are important, but can only make you eligible to enter the game and play it. Can be any of those are things that people copied, but the seven characteristics are impossible.相关的主题文章：


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