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2084860 2010 年 11 月 21 日 14:37 Reading (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
famous economist in Hong Kong - Lang
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99% of China's white-collar workers and their families will face bankruptcy. It is inevitable bankruptcy! Run away! It may happen in the next 2-10 years. You can try to doubt this figure. But it is bound to happen, not alarmist. 'As I predicted the inevitable unemployment Chinese state-owned enterprise workers, as in that time no one believed. But it does happen. Because in China,
据说月薪过了6000的应届生，都知道这些网站, a developing country, with the inevitable in order to keep inflation and reform measures in exchange for economic development. And each time the pains brought about by the reform are the people to afford. When both the countryside and mountainous areas of the educated youth were confused, or large state-owned enterprises reform and opening up have brought about a large number of laid-off workers close down. If they can have a certain forward-looking, then I think they might stay a little way out for themselves. However, due to too much too believe that life will not file and mutation, so that led to the tragedy of their lives.
Some say the government will not sit idly by white bankruptcy, the Government has of course not. Some things ... ... how can I say. I think back to the laid-off workers now. Caused so much social unrest. Can do? Today's white-collar future bankruptcy, they also did it.
and 20 years of reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development take off. But the old system is not completely changed. Variety of important industry is still in force is a government monopoly system in operation. Such as: banking , finance, metallurgy, energy, information, transportation,
エアマックス2011, health care, education, and land. China's reform and opening up of these things were not all aspects of the reform and opening. But today, the contradictions brought about by the monopoly is increasingly prominent .
bear the brunt of that real estate. As China's legal system is not perfect, especially the field of finance and reform, all kinds of mistakes made by the emergence of real estate has been rising. With the increase in real estate and the concentration of foreign population to the cities. Therefore, the new urban workers is the so-called 'white-collar workers' income is rising on the surface, to Beijing, for example a monthly salary of RMB 3000-15000 everywhere. But this part of the income is mainly used to pay rent or loan. In order to thoroughly understand why
99% of the white-collar families may go bankrupt, we must first understand why housing prices so high? Where high? Funds are functioning ? (Where white-collar families that buy a house or preparing to buy a house.), And the trend to bring the related effects. This will be explained to you in three stages.
1: cause prices soared in the first factor: Bank loans under the open competition.
fact, the main factors in house prices soared because of the people in behalf of the Government pay for the mistakes. Such as a developer before a bank loan by a 10 million development of a house. If not since he got in trouble because all the banks are a system, you owe the money did not also no opportunity to turn around. But China's banking reform on the basis of a hole open to competition among the banks so the ICBC, the Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank and so on all operate independently. It would have been a good thing. But the problem is that these banks are not private, but the state. Is not difficult to imagine. When a developer from the bank loans 10,000,000 consequences. He only need 500 million to develop a house, then the price increase, then the development of the price of a house according to his standards of mortgage lending to 20 million from the Agricultural Bank of China, and then use that 20 million of 10 million development of a sets the price higher mortgage the house to find 40 million Construction Bank. Is such a crazy lending model snowball.
house Maibu Mai to go out is not important, the key is the price is higher, not lower prices. Anyway, money is not a private bank, so a little bit to clear the President together with another 'legitimate' high retail price of real estate as collateral so naturally getting better and better from the bank loan.
then this result is that house prices do not just climb down! Because they can not fall! Out a bank loan or money to never come back. This is the Government's bank, the Government's money! So in order to plug the funding black hole is to buy some of the experts, media, public opinion began to madness by various means of coercion of public opinion were to buy a house.
such as land resources, severe stress, do not buy a house in the future can only live in the suburbs Yeah like that. Cause people to have to buy a house. In fact, can not live in this city simply can not happen this situation, the city residents is a process of replacement of old and new, to work to live in the city, the elderly live in rural areas like retirement. As long as the population explosion will not appear on white-collar workers do not live in the city center can not be the case. While the media has created a lot of people buy a house , but only so, prices are still not high as it now is outrageous. Then the Government made a second mistake.
2: cause prices soared in the second error: a mortgage with Chinese characteristics.
mortgage was originally a very popular system in the West, and very appropriate. However, the use of this system to China once a little problem. Because for large institutional. All banks are state, not private. Therefore, the gateway can not control lending firm. As long as the document makes sense, people will be able to credit the money.
early relief to the first error caused by money black hole. The Government introduced the system to individual mortgage houses. What is also often cite the United States to his wife and the Chinese woman's example to lure people to the mortgage. It was indeed the mortgage, and it is crazy mortgage. And banks as long as a little 'road' people. They first set of 80 million house mortgage, your down payment and then a 10 million 70 million loan from the bank. Then after the house sale to raise prices to 1.8 million. This time their relatives or to go buy I Met Your Mother, but also with the way the mortgage down payment of 30 million own a further 1.5 million loan from the bank. Then go on. They do not how to do the loan? Love Do not count bank. Anyway, I do not yet under contract on the money you can take the house, we owe the two incompatible.
so turned around, driving up the price of the house several times back in the hands of the government back to the bank. This explains why a lot of repair to the beginning of new flats to be 'real estate group' bought. Speculation is not gambling their house will appreciate. It took a house to clean up the bank.
banks how to do to get this house? Are afraid the price. Had to add some value and then sell. So do not even think about ordinary people now buy a real house at reasonable prices! Even if you bought directly from the developer of the hands of the houses might have switched hands several times back in the hands of the banks and developers. To say something is 8,000 / square in the house, there is only 2500 prices, 5500 is thought to bring money black hole making a wrong decision! That means you are restricted to the hard working to wipe.
3: The third question: white-collar families when bankruptcy? ?
then we study why the house prices up, again look at the so-called white-collar urban families in China in the necessity of bankruptcy. First, the foreign white-collar income
indeed high, but high value . The so-called white-collar workers in China is generally poor quality. Serious internal friction of Chinese enterprises. Everyone scorn, all stubborn. No wonder foreign companies entered the China market began to exclaim: 'to do business in China, not hire people! 'I am too deep. That some people would say:' Now is not worth the worth of white-collar, that you talk about why Mizuki Shuhei they can get such a raise? 'In fact, this caused the hot real estate a quantum effect. Loss of large amount of capital banks through the hands of a few of the flow of the market. These people began to make aggressive investments in other areas of China. Because they know that real estate is about to collapse. They do another round of investment boom is rapidly absorb the funds, they invest the Internet, high-tech investment, investment and entertainment, investment many, many. But at least enough to pay staff wages to pay the monthly rent or house for months now. Therefore , it is because rising prices of Chinese urban population created a relative increase wages. Do not believe you do the math in your average income of urban white-collar workers once completed pay monthly housing money, but also so much money on hand? I think it would not have me ramble on it. Psychological several people. So I can say that once the real estate crash that followed the collapse of your wages.
I know there are many, many white-collar workers who have purchased the house . Their thinking is simple: 'couple all taxes except net income per month is also the insurance of 12,000. What kind of housing money to pay 3000? I can buy a set too!' Yes, nothing. But because the house so what you are expensive. You eat, your traffic, your tuition fees, medical costs and more expensive!!! So the money you pay the room again except the cost of living is basically a penny to save for it, even if the storage point is also not keep up with normal inflation rate. The question is will maintain the status quo if so, in theory, should be all right. You two decades earned money just to make up for the loss of two errors.
But the problem also lies in here. As of the end of the buffer WTO5 years, a large number of foreign communications, banking, medical, insurance and so companies will have moved into China. At that time no one can stop you put money into Citigroup, HSBC deposit . That time to ask who would be willing to put money there so many bad debts of state-owned Chinese banks? How to take measures even if the Government could then run, so what will happen when the time is still hard to say. But one thing is certain is that when the pressure of state-owned these banks will become very large. Loans will be more difficult to add, because banks have no money to loan-to! At the same time a large number of foreign-funded enterprises with high-quality talent to enter the Chinese market will bring a strong impact and the collapse of a large number of existing enterprises and white-collar unemployment. That is. Once the foreign-funded enterprises to enter the competition, China's existing 99% of the white-collar workers will face a big job under pressure!
and foreign banks started to invest in once the accumulated funds, real estate, it is normal because of their operational processes so made out of the house will be cheaper, with the inevitable pull the national real estate declines. As I said earlier, housing prices have fallen, or is followed by the business in your wages! Can you buy a house before prices will not lower repayment or reduction, so you will be unable to pay exorbitant loan. Then your house will be taken away by the bank, your deposit will be directly freeze. So the future white-collar workers in Chinese cities are most likely and a few decades ago as China's state-owned enterprise workers. Hard two decades , in the end 竹篮打水一场空!
how to avoid bankruptcy?
see where you should be aware, do not buy a house is a good way to avoid bankruptcy. But I would also like to remind you not to try to jack up the property market down, they have a way, it is not advocating people do not buy a man child! You do not say, this is really a little effect. People now a port of the first sentence is: ' do you have room. 'It seems you do not like the room is a eunuch. I am really angry with the strength to curse no. Mizuki weeks in Baidu also post it in this post Ping said:' do not buy a house do you live? 'I wonder, is there a causal link to live and buy it? In China, a land not belonging to your house and rented out to you to sell you What is the difference? (Laughs). Not to mention the same property and the bandits who forced relocation of people wrong! This is not purely a 'Emperor's New Clothes' it? But since the WTO has been that China's publishing industry and the media industry is still not open. Then public opinion will save the market and developers in the hands of the government last trump card.
so we face a lot of rhetoric, when more than half a brain or your own. After a pack of lies we hear more and more property, more outrageous! For example, recently there are brick home not expensive in price when the advocate said: 'What if 5 million annual salary, the couple is also the year of 10 million, 5 years to 50 million. So of course, price is not expensive.' I was actually surprised some people nod? Perhaps for this or these have evolved to eat or drink is not fixed and patients do not wear dead father and mother had no use for the maintenance of the brick home really is that the case may be. Therefore, attention to vigilance.
Conclusion:
have to buy a house or preparing to buy the white-collar family will collapse with the collapse of housing prices, that would be a slow process occurs. As short as two years or as long as ten years. But this is an irreversible trend. Therefore, China has 99% of urban white-collar family, said a bankruptcy not an alarmist! Today each of you to the bank to pay for government housing allocation of money for real estate speculators who are repairing the hole, only a small part of the room is real money. Tomorrow, the environment changed, and you do not have that much money to fill the hole when the market and banks will be kicked back to the home, and then for a number of new people to fill. Do not believe? Wait and see the pictures! - PS: Why do I say 99% of this number, because according to my understanding once the monthly salary of 99% over 5000 people began to buy a house, or even to buy 3000,4000. What lovers do not understand that this life will be miserable going to buy. I just feel sad for them. Of course, if you're that 1% of the wise men, and more to persuade them to save it. Better Together alone.
[size = +0] Chinese are the four large when
largest when: real estate
what it means to buy a house? Means that you have a house of their own. Yes, you thought so, but in China you do not own this house, you just rent it. Because the house is yours, not your land, but the land use rights for 70 years (70 years from now it was back during the War, who saw time in the house?). House is usually about 30 years old renovation or demolition will be met. That means you spend the money to buy a house, but can only be renting the actual results. Of course this is not the worst. The worst is when a few years later, you find that fooled! A group of hooligans broke into you life savings to buy a house, painting a big Chaizi! Then all of your possessions, like when the garbage is still out the door, despite your begging, and even the newspapers also give you a nail by a notorious family, any abuse of the public when you will know what despair!
described China's real estate has a famous joke is written like this:
ago, there was a landlord there are many places to find a lot of permanent work, the landlord to cover their long-term employment Unity House, home to a number of the day, the landlord's advisor on the landlord, said: owner, long-term workers are a bit of money on hand the past few years, they live in your house, the monthly pay Zuzi, uneconomical, since they afford to live forever, you simply sell them the house is called from a tricks - public houses for sale! Tell them that the house belong to them forever,
如果你是我地另一半, you can save them money back in recent years, the landlord said: Yes, that rent how to do? Advisor, said: collects no mistake, from a Japanese name of children, called the property costs! Landowners to implement quickly, and make a lot of money, long- term employment are the happy ah!
a few years, the landlord of the village into town, and the rich more and more,
エアマックス90, no place to live, advisor to the landlord, said: owner,
Premier Wen Jiabao the basic principles of life (read lifetime) - Qzone log, long-term employment are the hands and money in recent years, we give them build a new house, called from a transformation of the old tricks, they switch their money to us, and we demolished the house to build a new, and ask them to buy back, you can sell more than cover a number of others, the landlord has carried out, this time, Some long-term workers are not happy, the landlord's retainers put to use, the permanent teeth have had to knock down the throat to the stomach, the landlord has made a lot of money.
Then, after a few years, the landlord of the village developed into a big city, and the rich more, the landlord of the land more valuable, and advisor to the landlord, said: club, we put these permanent houses demolished in this place to build villas, split out of the house sold to cover those who can earn a sum of money of the wealthy, the landlord said: how to do long-term workers who quit? Advisor, said : we give them a little more money, call their places from a monetary settlement, then we built our barn next to the house, from a tricks called affordable housing, they built a carriage road to allow them to buy over there room to live, the landlord said: how do they have enough money? Advisor, said: the banks borrow from our house to them before,
エアマックス2010, 6 points a year profits, but also with money, money, nothing if cubs, not any risk, the landlord has carried out, permanent they got the money, the landlords of affordable housing until now built a long-term employment they had to line up the house, until now, still waiting for it ... ...
Thus, long-term basis began to make trouble, and the landlord a little nervous, hurriedly asked counselors how to do? Advisor,
エアマックス, said: long-term employment they must notify the house to decline in value, do not buy, rent to live it, just rent them to our pen, the result, so many years, long-term employment have all the money gone, still rental housing, forever!
joke though a bit exaggerated, but in fact it not also true? Some people say that being the case? Why do Chinese people have to buy a house? Crazy to buy? Why? Is not the result of the stupefying education, as if 60 years, advocating that people have to buy Big Three: watches, sewing machines, bicycles can be a truly successful people marry a wife. 70 advocate that people should buy a new four pieces: TV, refrigerator, washing machine, install the phone can be considered as a wife have children to succeed, like remember to install the phone, but to thousands of dollars a ah (per capita income of the small town of less than 200), while tens of thousands of Beijing and Shanghai is more a time, have to take the human number line to buy, and how to buy a house today , the similarity? Today all the shit
scholars began to fool the people of this set of the old trick: white-collar family of new standards, new choice for successful small size X ring X Road, XX Road, Central, commercial and residential type. After you receive hundreds of thousands, have to charge you a monthly rent (the new management fee), bank interest, and various sorts of excuses to raise interest rates, policies and so on and so forth. In short you are not afraid to death, but afraid not suffer you to die! Gnaw on how happy people fooled,
nike air max, but a hundred on the tire of it? I am really angry and get it all wet!
second when: Employment
sigh when someone finally started: the year When the educated youth, when people are laid off after no way out, no one can sit-in protest against the Council, who also compiled the streets can only be reduced to laugh at life is heroic song, start over time. Have you ever thought of! They also have the same scenery and white-collar workers today! Income and status they had let the people around envy? Have you ever thought 20 years later! Like you would like them descend on the streets, deserted?!
Some say Hey! You do not know the unemployment insurance, pension insurance, XX insured it? Oh, I drift in Beijing, N years, many insurers pay tens of thousands about it, but when the Pao Duantui unemployment and no one gave me Han insurance, but many insurers have been frozen that I had to pay off, and I could and anger ... ... than that, you think you do to the age of 60 can get old-age insurance? Out of the sky without money! Today's pensions get older is that we earn! Today 30-40 years of age usually have several brothers and sisters! Means that today's elderly to get a pension at 60 is because there are 5 people for an old man! And after our generation is the old one for us two old people! Money come from? Did not have to,
air max! If you are able to live to 90 years old can receive a number of pension estimates, hey take care of it to you. But even so, parents are still mad for the children to the various units in the state-owned enterprises to send, to me to always have such an example. A distant relative of my home, find the relationship between drag friends, spent seventy dollars to his son through an open recruitment team sent to the traffic police, dry on the contract of police. Get 800 a month. Competition results in the third year was down to the brush. Family crying, I said, a good brush, you earn a lifetime ban on that seventy that does not return, and quickly wash before sleep, and then scrape together some money to change out a small business, go! Probably can earn.
when I graduated, I took me uncivil language is holding the money, the Department sent me to the XX. I saw the man responsible for recruitment that virtue can not help the nausea, Made in salary, uncivilized language, I'm the white dry it is not only back 10 years, the cost of food or drink. So I'm a private guy threatened, scared that potbellied X chief no longer afraid to admit me. I have had: to run away.
I wanted to do not understand? How come Chinese people silly? Such a superstitious country word it? Wake up, that line of thinking is not normal? Prior to his work does not pay to not calculate cost-effective?
there are those little young white-collar workers who find work best to pay a higher point, not the insurance to health insurance and nothing, and then save up their best insurance money, will need it. When the third-largest
: Education
a diploma worth ? A diploma worth? A diploma worth? The top of the printing costs two dollars a day. A teacher pay? Hey, two students a semester tuition enough! A class book printing how much? Two students, enough! How much rent one class a semester? Hey two students enough.! Hey! Education in China receive so much money you Why the hell!?
Hey! The people are! Why we have to be taken? Because the ruling class to tell us young scholar was admitted to glory. I'm sorry, I was wrong, and is admitted to the University was honored. But why do people never want to think about glory? Why ... ... University scholar honor what is not waste!
you know who your child is teaching it? Generally in China, people can not adapt to society will become a teacher, for example. Some time ago I was a project between the University to find a few graduate students to do procedures. Result very few people stupid, do not give you full consideration, guarding you only have to work, but also to the documents was a typo, not to change, so you find even told you seriously, is this not his fault, is that you give is wrong. Little sense of responsibility, will not consider whether one is to do things and do things or to do one thing and doing things. I was very calm and gave them reason: you must learn to think for others, thinking what other people want results and then do things. Otherwise it is impossible to survive in society. The results of a few, said: We did not go to the community, we are very good examination results, schools should we have stayed as a teacher. Originally, we have nothing to say the wrong, how do you arrange how we do it, do not you arranged for us not to do. This is our dignity and principles. I said: If you go to the porters, the boss did not arrange for you to work when the lock will not lock up your warehouse? You chilling you? After your child is under the guidance of such a person learn and grow. Rest assured it?
is no wonder that college cohabitation, truancy, fighting, suicide ... ... but the parents are still willing to spend money to send their children to school, and life is to spend the money.
fourth-largest when: Chinese car
crazy? Buy a car? Why buy a car??? Of course, you not only money spent, you love how to buy how to buy, buy a car, anyway, how up you Huabu Wan oil money, the house demolition you should not feel bad. But most people do?
I had a colleague to live the North Second Ring, the company Xizhimen there. Most probably take the subway to work every hour. Charade may have to buy a second hand, every morning at 8 o'clock on the road Duzhe, and then moved to the company little by little. Hey, a month parking fees are a lot. But they were felt to open the car its own identity senior point. Not to mention open a Charade, Audi is open to whom I have not seen the three knock nine who worship. In addition to look a little silly than others outside their own no other effect.
another occasion, I met the girl a month income to 4000, loans to buy a car in the plan. So I asked her: little girl, I've got to do business, their work on time, Metro and convenient to buy a car do? Thought for a long time, it is estimated can not think of any reason came and said: sometimes go to the supermarket to buy things right, hit another car near the point is not worth that, walking and far from the point. So drive yourself go! I almost did not hear disgusting. You drive to the supermarket to buy instant noodles do not feel sick it? Equipped with cellular phones to go incommunicado, is incommunicado for! Do not think that buying a car can prove anything.
example, I now own business, very busy day to run about 4-5 places , see a lot of customers. But I do not buy a car, why? I took a taxi that came with the move, kick left, no place to worry about parking, do not worry about hanging a touch, and without fear of being thieves tied, regardless of rain has hung the wind driver. Bumped a traffic jam if you can get off the subway. More than ten thousand a year will block RMB! Buy a car! Parking fees had more than ten thousand a year! This is not silly it? Do not buy a car
say do not buy a car, there are countless people who can be mad to go borrow money to buy? Die in their own future must not suffer too like! Buy it, buy a not finished raising interest rates? Oil prices are not crazy? Parking and is not expensive? Regret not it? The road to a cheapening of the new car sales are also not sell the right??
tell you that oil prices have to rise. Must be the same as oil prices rose and the dollar. Hey! You take the old US 1 / 10 of income, family support and a price of gasoline. I think you do not have to se.
final say, everyone is not stupid, are small by stupefying education Jinong Han had. Silly point does not matter, but of life or death thing you still tight with the point, more calculating the relationship between the economic interests of plan! Do not end, a real estate or oil of a rose, took the money to pay the rest of your life or something Han diploma will not do, for several decades to pay exorbitant taxes and levies being no further Han Han. You can not just post losses of hundreds of thousands .
What was said? Oh no way, do not, and do not buy a car you, the bus ah good squeeze. I said that out of all the stupefying education is doing strange vanity. You look at me, just rent a house to live more than a thousand pieces a month, it is equivalent to some people's property costs. If you want to get married I still afford to rent 3-4 thousand, and furniture decoration should be a whole. Which convenient, but also where I live. Not want to move to long-term rent. And also a kind of cross-property charges. Province, also in vain that the banks loans, interest, down payment pile. Something hit the car, nothing on the subway, ten thousand days a year, and also save a garage, parking fees, fines and other pile, the oil price rose to 10 also Lehe, do not delay things. I ran the University did not finish, while the market a self-study while planning to run their own business, do not they also can enter the foreign-listed companies as a manager it? Also saves the tens of thousands of tuition fees.
course, some people would say: You do not even have a house to buy, specify no wedding. I thought to myself: I do not, you think you have ah? Some people say that is not worth renting, leasing up or someone else, hey, do you think has a few years to buy a house loan is paid off you
Renovation update records 11-16
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