Harsh lessons we may must understand yet again By Joseph E. Stiglitz (China Everyday),
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Up to date: 2009-12-31 07:51 2009-12-31 07:51:21.0Joseph E. StiglitzHarsh lessons we might have to discover againlesson,2009,economy,crisis11011501Op-Ed Contributors2@webnews/enpproperty-->
The very best that may be said for 2009 is the fact that it could have been worse, that we pulled back in the precipice on which we appeared to be perched in late 2008, and that 2010 will almost undoubtedly be much better for the majority of nations across the entire world. The planet has also discovered some beneficial lessons, even though at great cost equally to latest and long term prosperity - charges that were unnecessarily substantial provided that we ought to by now have learned them.
The very first lesson is the fact that markets aren't self-correcting. In fact, without satisfactory regulation, they can be inclined to excessive. In 2009,
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Under the threat of a collapse of the entire system, the safety net - intended to help unfortunate individuals meet the exigencies of life - was generously extended to commercial financial institutions, then to investment banking institutions, insurance firms, auto companies, even car-loan companies. Never has so much money been transferred from so many to so few.
We are accustomed to thinking of government transferring money through the nicely off for the poor. Here it was the poor and average transferring money for the rich. By now heavily burdened taxpayers observed their money - intended to help financial institutions lend so that the economic climate could be revived - go to pay outsized bonuses and dividends. Dividends are supposed for being a share of profits; here it was simply a share of government largesse.
The justification was that bailing out the banking institutions, however messily, would enable a resumption of lending. That has not happened. All that happened was that average taxpayers gave money to your very institutions that had been gouging them for years - through predatory lending, usurious credit-card curiosity rates, and non-transparent fees.
The bailout exposed deep hypocrisy all all around. Those who had preached fiscal restraint when it came to small welfare programs for the poor now clamored for the world's largest welfare program. Those who had argued for free market's virtue of "transparency" ended up creating financial systems so opaque that banking institutions could not make sense of their own balance sheets. And then the government, too, was induced to engage in decreasingly transparent forms of bailout to cover up its largesse to your banks. Those who had argued for "accountability" and "responsibility" now sought debt forgiveness for the financial sector.
The second important lesson involves understanding why markets frequently do not work the way they are meant to. There are many reasons for market failures. In this case, too-big-to-fail financial institutions had perverse incentives: if they gambled and succeeded, they walked off with the profits; if they misplaced, the taxpayer would pay. Moreover, when information is imperfect, markets usually do not work effectively - and information imperfections are central in finance. Externalities are pervasive: the failure of one bank imposed expenses on others, and failures in the financial system imposed charges on taxpayers and staff all over the entire world.
The third lesson is the fact that Keynesian policies do work. Nations, like Australia, that implemented large, well-designed stimulus programs early emerged in the crisis faster. Other nations succumbed to your old orthodoxy pushed by the financial wizards who got us into this mess in the initial place.
Whenever an economic system goes into recession, deficits appear, as tax revenues fall faster than expenditures. The old orthodoxy held that one had to cut the deficit - raise taxes or cut expenditures - to "restore confidence." But those policies practically always reduced aggregate demand, pushed the economic system into a deeper slump, and further undermined confidence - most recently when the International Monetary Fund insisted on them in East Asia in the 1990's.
The fourth lesson is always that there is more to monetary policy than just fighting inflation. Excessive focus on inflation meant that some central banking institutions ignored what was happening to their financial markets. The costs of mild inflation are miniscule compared for the expenses imposed on economies when central banking institutions allow asset bubbles to grow unchecked.
The fifth lesson is that not all innovation leads to a more efficient and productive financial system - let alone a far better culture. Private incentives matter, and if they may be not properly aligned with social returns, the result can be excessive risk taking, excessively shortsighted behavior, and distorted innovation. For example, while the benefits of many of the financial-engineering innovations of recent years are hard to prove,
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Indeed, financial engineering did not create products that would help ordinary citizens manage the simple risk of home ownership - with the consequence that millions have lost their houses, and millions more are likely to do so. Instead, innovation was directed at perfecting the exploitation of those that are less educated, and at circumventing the regulations and accounting standards which were designed to make markets more efficient and stable. As a result, financial markets,
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We will soon find out whether we have realized the lessons of this crisis any much better than we should have realized the same lessons from previous crises.
Regrettably, unless the United States and other advanced industrial countries make much greater progress on financial-sector reforms in 2010 we may possibly find ourselves faced with another opportunity to understand them.
The author is an Economics Nobel laureate and university professor at Columbia University. He has many books, including Globalization and Its Discontents and The Roaring Nineties, to his credit. His latest book, Freefall, will be published in January.
(China Day-to-day 12/31/2009 page9)