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Reprinted from 498914228 at 22:08 on November 22nd, 2010 Read (loading. ..) Comments (0) Category: Personal Diary
well-known economist in Hong Kong - Lang, \. You can try to doubt this figure. but it must happen, not alarmist. \Do happen. Because in China, a developing country, with the inevitable ...
; Hong Kong's famous economists - Lang
'99% of the white-collar workers in China and their families will face bankruptcy. It is inevitable bankruptcy! Run away! It may happen in the next 2-10 years. You can try to doubt this figure. But it is bound to happen, not alarmist. 'As I predicted the inevitable unemployment Chinese state-owned enterprise workers, as in that time no one believed. But it does happen. Because in China, a developing country, with the inevitable in order to keep inflation and reform measures in exchange for economic development. And each time the pains brought about by the reform are the people to afford. When both the countryside and mountainous areas of the educated youth were confused, or large state-owned enterprises reform and opening up have brought about a large number of laid-off workers close down. If they can have a certain forward-looking, then I think they might stay a little way out for themselves. However, due to too much too believe that life will not file and mutation, so that led to the tragedy of their lives. -
Some say the government will not sit idly by white bankruptcy, the Government has of course not. Some things ... ... how can I say. I think back to the laid-off workers now. Caused so much social unrest. Can do? Today's white-collar future bankruptcy, they also did it. -
and 20 years of reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development take off. But the old system is not completely changed. Variety of important industry is still in force is a government monopoly system in operation. Such as: banking, finance, metallurgy, energy, information, transportation, health care, education,
Transfer A traffic police hematemesis help advice!, and land. China's reform and opening up of these things were not all aspects of the reform and opening. But today, the contradictions brought about by the monopoly is increasingly prominent. -
bear the brunt of that real estate. As China's legal system is not perfect, especially the field of finance and reform, all kinds of mistakes made by the emergence of real estate has been rising. With the increase in real estate and the concentration of foreign population to the cities. Therefore, the new urban workers is the so-called 'white-collar workers' income is rising on the surface, to Beijing, for example a monthly salary of RMB 3000-15000 everywhere. But this part of the income is mainly used to pay rent or loan. -
to in-depth understanding of why the 99% of the white-collar families may go bankrupt, we must first understand why housing prices so high? Where high? Funds are functioning? (Where white-collar families that buy a house or preparing to buy a house.), And the trend to bring the related effects. This will be explained to you in three stages. -
1: cause prices soared in the first factor: Bank loans under the open competition. -
housing prices soared in fact, is the main factor for the Government because of the people in the mistakes of pay. Such as a developer before a bank loan by a 10 million development of a house. If not since he got in trouble because all the banks are a system, you owe the money did not also no opportunity to turn around. But China's banking reform on the basis of a hole open to competition among the banks so the ICBC,
Ten women in the hearts of the most romantic thing, the Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank and so on all operate independently. It would have been a good thing. But the problem is that these banks are not private, but the state. Is not difficult to imagine. When a developer from the bank loans 10,000,000 consequences. He only need 500 million to develop a house, then the price increase, then the development of the price of a house according to his standards of mortgage lending to 20 million from the Agricultural Bank of China, and then use that 20 million of 10 million development of a sets the price higher mortgage the house to find 40 million Construction Bank. Is such a crazy lending model snowball. -
house Maibu Mai to go out is not important, the key is the price is higher, not lower prices. Anyway,
孤独的平安夜 - Qzone日志, money is not a private bank, so a little bit to clear the President together with another 'legitimate' high retail price of real estate as collateral so naturally getting better and better from the bank loan. -
then this result is that house prices do not just climb down! Because they can not fall! Out a bank loan or money to never come back. This is the Government's bank, the Government's money! So in order to plug the funding black hole is to buy some of the experts, media, public opinion began to madness by various means of coercion of public opinion were to buy a house. -
such as land resources, severe stress, do not buy a house in the future can only live in the suburbs Yeah like that. Cause people to have to buy a house. In fact, can not live in this city simply can not happen this situation, the city residents is a process of replacement of old and new, to work to live in the city, the elderly live in rural areas like retirement. As long as the population explosion will not appear on white-collar workers do not live in the city center can not be the case. While the media has created a lot of people buy a house, but only so, prices are still not high as it now is outrageous. Then the Government made a second mistake. -
2: cause prices soared in the second error: a mortgage with Chinese characteristics. -
mortgage was originally a very popular system in the West, and very appropriate. However, the use of this system to China once a little problem. Because for large institutional. All banks are state, not private. Therefore, the gateway can not control lending firm. As long as the document makes sense, people will be able to credit the money. -
early relief to the first error caused by money black hole. The Government introduced the system to individual mortgage houses. What is also often cite the United States to his wife and the Chinese woman's example to lure people to the mortgage. It was indeed the mortgage, and it is crazy mortgage. And banks as long as a little 'road' people. They first set of 80 million house mortgage, your down payment and then a 10 million 70 million loan from the bank. Then after the house sale to raise prices to 1.8 million. This time their relatives or to go buy I Met Your Mother, but also with the way the mortgage down payment of 30 million own a further 1.5 million loan from the bank. Then go on. They do not how to do the loan? Love Do not count bank. Anyway, I do not yet under contract on the money you can take the house, we owe the two incompatible. -
so turned around, driving up the price of the house several times back in the hands of the government back to the bank. This explains why a lot of repair to the beginning of new flats to be 'real estate group' bought. Speculation is not gambling their house will appreciate. It took a house to clean up the banks. -
banks how to do to get this house? Are afraid the price. Had to add some value and then sell. So do not even think about ordinary people now buy a real house at reasonable prices! Even if you bought directly from the developer of the hands of the houses might have switched hands several times back in the hands of the banks and developers. To say something is 8,000 / square in the house, there is only 2500 prices, 5500 is thought to bring money black hole making a wrong decision! That means you are restricted to the hard working to wipe. -
3: The third question: white-collar families when bankruptcy? ? -
So why do we study the house prices will go up, come look at the so-called white-collar urban families in China in the necessity of bankruptcy. -
first foreign white-collar income is indeed high, but high value. The so-called white-collar workers in China is generally poor quality. Serious internal friction of Chinese enterprises. Everyone scorn, all stubborn. No wonder foreign companies entered the China market began to exclaim: 'to do business in China, not hire people! 'I am too deep. That some people would say: 'Now is not worth the worth of white-collar workers, that Mizuki Zhou Ping you can talk about why they get such a raise? 'In fact, this caused the hot real estate a quantum effect. Loss of large amount of capital banks through the hands of a few of the flow of the market. These people began to make aggressive investments in other areas of China. Because they know that real estate is about to collapse. They do another round of investment boom is rapidly absorb the funds, they invest the Internet, high-tech investment, investment and entertainment, investment many, many. But at least enough to pay staff wages to pay the monthly rent or house for months now. Therefore, it is because rising prices of Chinese urban population created a relative increase wages. Do not believe you do the math in your average income of urban white-collar workers once completed pay monthly housing money, but also so much money on hand? I think it would not have me ramble on it. Psychological several people. So I can say that once the real estate crash that followed the collapse of your wages. -
I know there are many, many white-collar workers who have purchased the house. Their thinking is simple: 'couple all taxes except net income per month is also the insurance of 12,000. What kind of housing money to pay 3000? I can buy a set too! 'Yes, nothing. But because the house so what you are expensive. You eat, your traffic, your tuition fees, medical costs and more expensive! ! ! So the money you pay the room again except the cost of living is basically a penny to save for it, even if the storage point is also not keep up with normal inflation rate. The question is will maintain the status quo if so, in theory, should be all right. You two decades earned money just to make up for the loss of two errors. -
But the problem also lies in here. As of the end of the buffer WTO5 years, a large number of foreign communications, banking, medical, insurance and so companies will have moved into China. At that time no one can stop you put money into Citigroup, HSBC deposit. That time to ask who would be willing to put money there so many bad debts of state-owned Chinese banks? How to take measures even if the Government could then run, so what will happen when the time is still hard to say. But one thing is certain is that when the pressure of state-owned these banks will become very large. Loans will be more difficult to add, because banks have no money to loan-to! At the same time a large number of foreign-funded enterprises with high-quality talent to enter the Chinese market will bring a strong impact and the collapse of a large number of existing enterprises and white-collar unemployment. That is. Once the foreign-funded enterprises to enter the competition, China's existing 99% of the white-collar workers will face a big job under pressure! -
and foreign banks started to invest in once the accumulated funds, real estate, it is normal because of their operational processes so made out of the house will be cheaper, with the inevitable pull the national real estate declines. As I said earlier, housing prices have fallen, or is followed by the business in your wages! Can you buy a house before prices will not lower repayment or reduction, so you will be unable to pay exorbitant loan. Then your house will be taken away by the bank, your deposit will be directly freeze. So the future white-collar workers in Chinese cities are most likely and a few decades ago as China's state-owned enterprise workers. Hard two decades, in the end ��:��ˮһ����! -
how to avoid bankruptcy? -
see where you should be aware, do not buy a house is a good way to avoid bankruptcy. But I would also like to remind you not to try to jack up the property market down, they have a way, it is not advocating people do not buy a man child! You do not say, this is really a little effect. People now a port of the first sentence is: 'do you have room. 'It seems you do not like the room is a eunuch. I am really angry with the strength to curse no. Mizuki weeks in Baidu also post it in this post Ping said: 'do not buy a house do you live? 'I wonder, is there a causal link to live and buy it? In China, a land not belonging to your house and rented out to you to sell you What is the difference? (Laughs). Not to mention the bandits who, like property and improper person to forced evictions! This is not purely a 'Emperor's New Clothes' it? But since the WTO has been that China's publishing industry and the media industry is still not open. Then public opinion will save the market and developers in the hands of the government last trump card. -
so we face a lot of time or his rhetoric, always think twice. After a pack of lies we hear more and more property, more outrageous! For example, recently there are brick home not expensive in price when the advocate said: 'What if 5 million annual salary, the couple is also the year of 10 million, 5 years to 50 million. So of course, price is not expensive. 'I was actually surprised some people nod? Perhaps for this or these have evolved to eat or drink is not fixed and patients do not wear dead father and mother had no use for the maintenance of the brick home really is that the case may be. Therefore, attention to vigilance. -
Conclusion: -
have to buy a house or preparing to buy a house
white-collar family home prices will collapse as the collapse happened it would be a slow process. As short as two years or as long as ten years. But this is an irreversible trend. Therefore, China has 99% of urban white-collar family, said a bankruptcy not an alarmist! Today each of you to the bank to pay for government housing allocation of money for real estate speculators who are repairing the hole, only a small part of the room is real money. Tomorrow, the environment changed, and you do not have that much money to fill the hole when the market and banks will be kicked back to the home, and then for a number of new people to fill. Do not believe? Wait and see the pictures! - PS: Why do I say 99% of this number, because according to my understanding once the monthly salary of 99% over 5000 people began to buy a house, or even to buy 3000,4000. What lovers do not understand that this life will be miserable going to buy. I just feel sad for them. Of course, if you're that 1% of the wise men, and more to persuade them to save it. Better Together alone.
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